Updated NFL MVP Odds, Predictions: The Only Ways Joe Burrow, Tom Brady Can Vault Aaron Rodgers for the Award
- This story was originally published before the final regular season games of the NFL season.
- There were a few ways where Aaron Rodgers could have fumbled his opportunity to win back-to-back NFL MVPs, but he appears to be safe.
- The Action Network broke down exactly how Rodgers could have lost the award.
2022 NFL MVP Odds
Odds are according to DraftKings as of Wednesday, Jan. 5. Odds are up to +8000.
With the Packers sealing up the No. 1 seed after dismantling the Vikings on Sunday Night Football, it looks like the NFL MVP race may already be over.
For weeks, it looked like all Aaron Rodgers needed was to lock down the No. 1 seed and ride off into the sunset. The 2020 NFL MVP has the highest touchdown-to-interception ratio by far out of all quarterbacks with at least 750 passing yards. He also has the highest first-down ratio of any QB by a fairly high margin.
The Packers offense is ranked No. 2 in the NFL according to DVOA, only behind the Buccaneers. Bucs QB Tom Brady has been Rodgers’ main competition for this award for a month now, but has looked shaky — notably, in a 9-0 shutout loss to the Saints and a 28-24 victory over the hapless Jets in which the NFL’s worst-ranked defense contained Tampa for three-and-a-half quarters.
So, Rodgers’ odds at -400 look relatively safe with the No. 1 seed clinched. The 37-year-old’s MVP odds shortened from -175 last week.
It’s not the worst bet you could make, if you’re comfortable with a book holding onto your stake until Thursday, Feb. 10, when the awards are announced on live television.
There are still a few scenarios in which Rodgers can fumble this award, though.
First of all, Rodgers said on Monday that he planned on playing against the Lions in a meaningless Week 18 game next week. And that he expects star wide receiver Davante Adams to suit up, too. Why? I have no idea. With Rodgers’ fractured toe, nothing to play for and the MVP locked up if he just takes a rest, this decision doesn’t make any sense to me.
It is the Lions, however, and perhaps Rodgers wants to have one lights out performance against a team he historically owns to really ensure he goes back-to-back.
But if Rodgers falters on Sunday and Brady bombs it for, like, 500 yards against the Panthers? There’s a small possibility Brady usurps Rodgers for the MVP crown.
I don’t necessarily foresee it — and I definitely wouldn’t wager on it.
The Buccaneers have pretty concerning personnel issues at wide receiver with Antonio Brown now released and Chris Godwin out for the season.
And at Brady’s +500 odds, that implies the chances he throws for a career-high in yards and touchdowns next Sunday is around 17%. Plus, Rodgers has to throw up a dud against the Lions, of all teams.
I give the odds of that happening at around +1400 (7%), at best.
The only other scenario involves Joe Burrow, who was as long as +10000 to win this award earlier this season but has jumped up to the third-best favorite after clinching the AFC North against the Chiefs on Sunday.
Burrow’s odds at +1000, however, might not be a fair enough price.
The former No. 1 pick out of LSU will need to put up the same video game numbers against the Browns next week that he did against the Chiefs — somewhere around 446 yards with four touchdowns and no picks should do the trick.
Then, he’ll need some help from other teams in order for the Bengals to jump up to the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Titans would have to lose to the 4-12 Texans, a team that’s ranked dead last in offense by a sizable margin.
Then, the Chiefs would have to fall to the Broncos, who are a roughly average team on both sides of the ball, but have been historically dominated by the Chiefs, especially during the Andy Reid era.
I don’t say it lightly when I mean dominate. The Chiefs have won their last 12 games against the Broncos dating back to 2015. Twelve-and-oh. That includes an 8-0 mark during the Patrick Mahomes era. Mahomes actually won his first career start in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Broncos in 2017 with several Chiefs starters out.
This is all to say that Burrow’s +1000 odds — which imply a 9% chance of all those things taking place — aren’t even close to long enough to wager on. If you love action though, by all means.
Burrow had been the +3500, seventh-best favorite to win the NFL MVP before his showing against Kansas City.
Cincinnati has already guaranteed themselves at least the No. 4 seed with their win on Sunday. A win against the Browns would mean likely mean the No. 3 seed.
But that won’t be enough for Burrow to win this award.