Our Favorite Week 8 NFL Prop Bets & Picks: Deshaun Watson, Marlon Mack, More

Our Favorite Week 8 NFL Prop Bets & Picks: Deshaun Watson, Marlon Mack, More article feature image

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Hyde

  • Mike Randle highlights five of the best NFL prop bets for Week 8 according to our model.
  • Find our picks for Deshaun Watson's passing touchdowns, Marlon Mack's receiving yards and more below.

NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain a big edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.

The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.

One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.

We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

  • Chargers at Bears: 1 p.m. ET
  • Buccaneers at Titans: 1 p.m. ET
  • Broncos at Colts: 1 p.m. ET
  • Raiders at Texans: 4:25 p.m. ET

Week 8 NFL Prop Bets & Picks

Here are five props with a Bet Quality of at least 9 for Sunday’s main slate. This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 251-155-8 (60.6% win rate).

Texans RB Carlos Hyde

  • The Opponent: Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

Hyde has enjoyed a productive 2019 season ranking 10th in carries 11th in rushing yards at the position. However, his plodding style and lack of elusiveness (41st among all running backs in Juke Rate), make him a volume-based play.

Oakland’s strong run defense presents a suboptimal matchup for Hyde to find success.

Through Week 7, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (80.6) to opposing running backs. Hyde’s 4.1 yards per touch average ranks an absurdly low 44th at the position, and his nine total targets make him a non-existent passing game threat.

In last week’s 42-24 blowout loss to Green Bay, the Raiders still only allowed 2.6 yards per carry to the Packers running backs. If Houston wants success on the ground, look for the more elusive pass-catching Duke Johnson to steal touches from Hyde in an ideal pass-heavy game script.

Hyde has fallen short of this prop number in four of Houston’s last five games, and this matchup against the stiff Oakland run defense makes it likely to happen again.

I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -130. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

bears-redskins-betting-odds-pick-preview-nfl-week 3-2019
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitchell Trubisky.

Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

  • The Opponent: Chargers (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-155)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

This line is based on Trubisky’s reputation as a mobile quarterback, but ignores the fact the Chicago quarterback hasn’t run at all this season. Trubisky has 21 total rushing yards this season including zero over his past two games.

Having injured his non-throwing shoulder twice, Trubisky certainly appears more likely to stay in the pocket and avoid a potential re-injury.

In their seven games this season, the Chargers have only allowed 62 total quarterback rushing yards on the 11th most attempts.

After facing criticism over a franchise-low five total running back rushing attempts, look for head coach Matt Nagy to return to a more balanced offensive attack to protect the injured and erratic Trubisky.

With slot wide receiver Anthony Miller garnering 16 targets over his past two games, Trubisky’s full complement of weapons lessens the need for him to attack the short area of the field with his legs.

Titans TE Jonnu Smith

  • The Opponent: Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

Fantasy owners have been waiting patiently for the 6-foot-3, 248 lb athletic freak to ascend to the full-time tight end role in the Titans offense. A dominant tight end at Florida International, Smith faces an ideal matchup against a struggling Tampa Bay secondary.

In the 11 career games without Delanie Walker, Smith has been able to roughly double his efficiency:

With Walker ruled out of last week’s game against the Chargers, Smith caught all three of his targets for 64 receiving yards. He will now face a Buccaneers defense that is second-most generous to opposing tight ends. Tampa Bay has allowed 497 yards and three touchdowns to the opposition’s tight end position.

Facing a Tampa Bay pass funnel defense, Smith should have ample opportunities to pass this 22.5 receiving yard level.

We project Smith at 30.2 receiving yards a full 25% over his implied total of 24.5 yards. I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -150.

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Marlon Mack

Colts RB Marlon Mack

  • The Opponent: Broncos (1 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
  • Bet Quality: 9/10

Marlon Mack has seen increased involvement in the passing game this season. He has seen three targets in each of his past two games, totaling six receptions for 28 yards.

This week the Colts face a Denver secondary that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Broncos’ focus on eliminating the big pass play has allowed opposing running backs to accumulate the ninth-most receptions (41).

Mack projects for another high snap share in a game with a low 42.5 point over/under.

We project Mack at 12.8 receiving yards, 16% over the implied total of 11.1.

I would bet this prop up to -130.

Texans QB Deshaun Watson

  • The Opponent: Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns  (-190)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

The Raiders have played very well during a difficult stretch of consecutive road games — Oakland hasn’t played at home since Sept. 15 — but we started to see some fatigue set in this past Sunday in Green Bay.

Houston should be able to take advantage of an Oakland pass defense that ranked 26th entering Week 7, and just allowed 429 passing yards and six total touchdowns to Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

In this career, quarterback Deshaun Watson has averaged 2.1 passing touchdowns at home. The Raiders repeatedly fail to generate pressure on the quarterback, ranking 29th in sacks (eight), and last in quarterback hits (13).

Per Pro Football Focus, Watson has the second-best clean pocket completion percentage (79%) among all quarterbacks.

In a game with the second-highest Week 8 over/under (51.5 points), I like Watson’s chances to at least match his career average against a poor Raiders secondary.

We project Watson for 2.2 passing touchdowns, which is 27% more than his implied total. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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