Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
- Several special NFL prop bets are available for Week 9, including a passing touchdown prop for Patrick Mahomes.
- The prop is offering a +150 payout if Mahomes throws for at least four touchdowns, while the price on three or fewer is -200.
- With the help of Sean Koerner's projections, we found a valuable betting opportunity.
This weekend, the Kansas City Chiefs visit Cleveland to take on the Hue Jackson-less Cleveland Browns. Who knows how good they can be now? The ceiling’s the roof.
The Chiefs are 9-point favorites with an implied total right around 30 points, depending on the book.
More than 85% of bettors are taking the Chiefs so far, so I think it’s fair to say that the public thinks Kansas City will be running over the Browns despite the coaching change.
Some early prop bets are being offered and among them is a Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns prop.
Technically, the prop is “P MAHOMES TO THROW 4 TD PASSES VS BROWNS IN WEEK 9” with a yes or no option, but I’ve taken the liberty of calling it an over/under.
- Over 3.5: +150
- Under 3.5: -200
Mahomes leads the NFL with 26 TD passes in eight games and has thrown at least four touchdown passes in five of the eight. Yes is looking like a decent option, eh?
Well, let’s see if it actually has value.
I can’t come up with wizard-like projections personally, but I know a fella who can … Sean Koerner, The Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics! He has a fancy table made up with percentages for each potential outcome, making my job rather easy.
- Zero touchdowns: 7.4%
- One touchdown: 19.3%
- Two touchdowns: 25.1%
- Three touchdowns: 21.8%
Add those numbers up and you get a grand total of 73.6%. That means the under hits nearly 75% of the time!
When you toss 73.6% into an odds converter, it spits out -279. Meanwhile, the books are offering -200.
Meanwhile, if you were inclined to take the over, you’d be getting a terrible payout. The implied odds of +150 are 40%, but the chance he hits that number is just 26.4%.
Mahomes is good. He may be the MVP. But don’t get wrapped up in the hype. Take the under.