Super Bowl ads aren’t just commercials—they’re among the most expensive marketing bets in the world.
In 2024, a single 30-second spot cost millions before production even began, and many brands spent even more to build celebrity-driven, cinematic campaigns.
So what happens to companies after their Super Bowl ad airs?
To explore that question, we built the Super Bowl Ad Meter Stock Performance Index, tracking how the parent companies behind USA Today’s Top 5 Ad Meter commercials performed in the stock market after the game.
We measured how each company’s share price changed from the Friday before the Super Bowl to six months later, using closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends.
Stock prices move for many reasons—earnings, new products, and the broader economy, so this doesn’t prove an ad caused a gain or loss. But it does show what happened to these companies in the months after a high-profile Super Bowl appearance.
Below are the Top 5 Super Bowl ads, followed by the biggest share price gains, along with the biggest drops—and what the patterns suggest.
Key Findings
Tech brands led the biggest gains: Companies like Amazon and Microsoft saw strong share price increases in the six months after the game.
Creative winners didn’t always win in the market: Several #1-ranked ads were followed by share price declines, showing that popularity doesn’t guarantee a positive outcome.
You didn’t have to be #1: Many of the strongest gains came from ads ranked #3–#5.
Consumer brands were steadier: Companies like Kraft Heinz, PepsiCo, and P&G tended to show more moderate moves.
Auto brands swung the most: Ads from Jeep, Toyota, and Kia were linked to the widest range of outcomes—from strong gains to steep declines.
The biggest shifts showed up months later: The clearest movement in share price tended to show up over six months, not immediately after the game.
The big takeaway: winning the Ad Meter didn’t always mean winning afterward.
The Top 5 Super Bowl Ads With the Biggest Increase in Company Performance
1) Amazon (2023) — “Saving Sawyer”
Ad Meter Rank: #3
Parent Company: Amazon (AMZN)
6-Month Return:+41.80%
Amazon didn’t even win the Ad Meter in 2023—it ranked #3, but its stock delivered the largest six-month return in the dataset. It’s a striking example of how Super Bowl payoff doesn’t necessarily come from being the top-ranked ad. It comes from showing up at the right moment, when the business is positioned for growth.
2) Microsoft (2019) — “We All Win”
Ad Meter Rank: #3
Parent Company: Microsoft (MSFT)
6-Month Return:+34.25%
Microsoft’s 2019 Super Bowl spot earned a Top 5 Ad Meter ranking—and six months later, the stock was up more than 34%. It’s one of the clearest examples in the Index of a campaign that worked as a powerful brand reinforcement moment, not a one-night stunt.
3) Jeep / Stellantis (2021) — “The Middle”
Ad Meter Rank: #5
Parent Company: Stellantis (STLA)
6-Month Return:+34.06%
This one is a surprise: Jeep ranked #5 on the Ad Meter list, yet it delivered one of the highest outcomes in the dataset. That matters because it challenges a common assumption in Super Bowl advertising—that only the #1 ad drives meaningful value. In this case, a Top 5 placement was enough to coincide with significant long-term gains.
4) Amazon (2018) — “Alexa Loses Her Voice”
Ad Meter Rank: #1
Parent Company: Amazon (AMZN)
6-Month Return:+27.36%
A rare double-win: this ad ranked #1 on the Ad Meter and was followed by a strong stock performance over six months.
For brands trying to justify a massive Super Bowl ad investment, this is one of the clearest examples that the bet can align with measurable value—when it’s paired with long-term business momentum.
5) Kraft Heinz (2016) — “Wiener Stampede”
Ad Meter Rank: #2
Parent Company: Kraft Heinz (KHC)
6-Month Return:+23.76%
Not every winner is a fast-growth tech company. Kraft Heinz’s 2016 ad is proof that big consumer brands can still see meaningful post-Super Bowl gains. In a slower-growth category, a +23.76% six-month return is significant—and a reminder that Super Bowl payoff isn’t limited to “momentum stocks.”
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The Biggest Super Bowl Ad Disappointments
Just as some top-ranked ads are aligned with major upside, others show the opposite: creative success doesn’t protect companies from market reality.
Here are the largest six-month declines from the dataset:
1. Jeep / Stellantis (2020) — “Groundhog Day” (-22.03%)
A #1-ranked Ad Meter winner that still saw steep losses. A reminder that broader economic and industry conditions can outweigh any Super Bowl halo effect.
2. Toyota (2018) — “Good Odds” (-21.56%)
Auto stocks are among the most volatile in the Index—and Super Bowl buzz doesn’t stabilize them.
3. Kia (2022) — “Robo Dog” (-10.68%)
Even with strong short-term performance, longer-term returns turned negative—showing why performance should be measured in months, not days.
4. Amazon (2022) — “Mind Reader” (-6.35%)
The same brand that saw an upswing in other years saw a decline in 2022.
5. Rocket Mortgage / Rocket Companies (2022) — “Dream House” (-5.19%)
A #1-ranked ad that still delivered negative six-month returns, highlighting how sensitive financial sectors are to macro conditions.
One Week Winners: Companies That Saw The Biggest Short-Term Gains
| Rank (1W Gain) | Brand / Parent Company | Ad (Year) | Ad Meter Rank | Category | Ticker | 1-Week Return |
| #1 | Kia / Kia Corp | “Robo Dog” (2022) | #4 | Auto / EV | 000270.KS | +17.96% |
| #2 | Uber Eats / Uber | “Don’t Forget Uber Eats” (2024) | #4 | Tech / Delivery | UBER | +8.02% |
| #3 | Google / Alphabet | “Loretta” (2020) | #3 | Tech | GOOGL | +5.30% |
| #4 | Microsoft / Microsoft | “Braylon” (2015) | #4 | Tech | MSFT | +4.85% |
| #5 | Hyundai / Hyundai Motor Co | “First Date” (2016) | #1 | Auto | 005380.KS | +4.49% |
The week after the Super Bowl can create momentum, but it’s often fleeting. Several brands see a noticeable stock jump shortly after the game, suggesting the event can spark short-term attention and investor excitement.
Kia had the biggest immediate lift, and it didn’t stick. After ranking in the Top 5 with “Robo Dog” (2022), Kia’s stock surged the following week (+17.96%)… but the momentum faded fast, ending six months later down overall. It’s a clear example of a “big pop” that didn’t translate into lasting strength.
Some industries are more likely to swing sharply in the days after the game. Auto and tech names show the widest short-term moves, which fits their reputation for being more sensitive to headlines, market sentiment, and macro news.
Even strong one-week jumps don’t tell you what happens next. Uber, for example, rose strongly in the week after the Super Bowl in 2024, but later drifted negatively over longer time windows. It’s a reminder that the post-game bounce isn’t a straight line.
Tech tends to show steadier, more durable momentum than most categories. Microsoft and Alphabet posted positive one-week bumps—and in the broader dataset, tech names are more likely to keep rising over time than sectors like auto or finance.
The Super Bowl effect looks more like a spark than a guarantee. A high-profile ad can contribute to a short-term narrative bump, but markets respond to many other forces at the same time, meaning the Super Bowl is rarely the only driver.
Final Takeaway: Do Super Bowl Ads Payoff?
Super Bowl advertising is expensive because it delivers something nearly impossible to buy anywhere else: shared attention at scale. The audience isn’t just one fanbase; it’s Jets fans hate-watching, Chiefs fans crying, Vikings fans hoping next year is the year, and casual viewers there for the buffalo chicken dip. But attention alone isn’t what companies want. Companies want results and pay in the millions for it. The data shows that some companies' ads are followed by a surge in company performance. However, others are an expensive investment followed by a decline. The research can't say the ad hurt, but in some cases, it looks like it certainly didn't help.
Methodology
The Super Bowl Ad Meter Stock Performance Index examines whether brands that rank in the Top 5 of USA Today’s Ad Meter see corresponding stock gains for their publicly traded parent companies. The analysis includes the Top 5 Ad Meter ads for each year from 2015 to 2024.
1) Dataset
For each Top 5 ad, we recorded:
- Brand and parent company
- Public vs. private status
- Stock ticker/exchange (if public)
- GICS sector
- Super Bowl date and baseline trading date (Friday before the Super Bowl)
Private brands were included for completeness but excluded from return calculations.
2) Stock Price Collection
For publicly traded parent companies, adjusted closing prices were collected from Yahoo Finance for:
- Baseline (Friday before the Super Bowl)
- 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months after
When a target date was not a trading day, the nearest available trading day was used and documented.
3) Return Calculation
Returns were calculated as percent change from baseline:
Return = (Price_after / Price_baseline − 1) × 100
4) Exclusions
Entries tied to private companies or organizations (e.g., State Farm, Dunkin’, NFL) were excluded from numerical analysis because no public stock data exists.
All data used was publicly available at the time of collection, and pricing was based on adjusted close values.
You can see the full data here.
