Playoff hockey, baby! Wednesday’s opening night features only three games, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing for the Jets/Wild game at 7:00 ET.
Wild W Mikael Granlund under 2.5 shots on goal (-125)
7:00 p.m. ET
Over the past year, Granlund has notably averaged 2.51 shots per game (87th percentile), but over the past month his shots have plummeted to 1.54 per game (53rd). Granlund has registered three or more shots in only three of his past 15 games, and — as previously detailed in our Western Conference Preview — Winnipeg is much improved defensively this season. This is a tough spot for Granlund to progress toward his long-term mean, so if bookmakers are weighing his long-term shot totals too heavily the under certainly makes some sense, especially given that the Wild own the slate’s lowest Expected Corsi For.
Jets D Dustin Byfuglien over 2.5 shots on goal (-140)
7:00 p.m. ET
On today’s slate, only Patric Hornqvist (99th, 4.54 shots) and Shea Theodore (98th, 3.86) have averaged more shots on goal over the past month than Byfuglien (98th, 3.85), yet somehow his prop is set at 2.5 in a matchup against Minnesota that is no worse than neutral (65th percentile in shot attempts allowed). Over that same time period, Byfuglien has registered fewer than three shots in only four of 14 games, and Winnipeg owns the slate’s second-highest Expected Corsi For. Minnesota has been great at home this season, but the Wild allowed an average of three additional shots on the road this year, the eighth-largest split in the NHL.
Pictured above: Dustin Byfuglien