The Boston Bruins (43-25-8) and Tampa Bay Lightning (47-22-6) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 5:00 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+104o / -128u). Tampa Bay is a -192 favorite to win outright, while Boston is +158 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bruins vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Bruins vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Bruins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 6.5 104o / -128u | +158 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 6.5 104o / -128u | -192 |
- Bruins vs. Lightning Spread: Bruins +1.5 (-162), Lightning -1.5 (+132)
- Bruins vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (+104o / -128u)
- Bruins vs. Lightning Moneyline: Bruins +158, Lightning -192
Bruins vs. Lightning Preview
Boston Bruins
With six games left, the Bruins' magic number is seven, and MoneyPuck has them at a 95.7% chance to make the playoffs. If you had predicted that after last season's fire sale, it would've raised some eyebrows.
With that said, they've dropped some bad games to teams battling for or already out of the playoff picture. Thursday was the most recent example against an injured Panthers squad.
Despite that, Boston has been elite in bounce-back spots, going 10-0-2 after a loss since the New Year while outscoring opponents 41-25 in those games. They've also shown the ability to flip the switch against better competition, closing out the last week of March with wins over Buffalo, Minnesota, Columbus and Dallas.
As I mentioned in my write-up for the Dallas game earlier this week, some of the metrics can be misleading when it comes to Boston. The short version of it is they rank first in goals for above expected and carry the second-best goals against above expected mark at -26.99 this season.
That has carried into their recent play as well. Over their last 10 games, they sit third at 3.08 GF/60 and sixth at 1.89 GA/60 at 5-on-5, much better than their expected marks of 2.49 xGF/60 and 2.27 xGA/60.
What is not misleading is Jeremy Swayman. He was solid again Thursday, even in a loss, and I’d expect him to get the start again today.
He now leads the league in GSAx on the season and has posted a +8.1 GSAx, .917 SV%, and 2.37 GAA over his last 10 starts.
Boston is in a brutal travel spot with an afternoon game in Philadelphia tomorrow, which would be the more likely start for Joonas Korpisalo, in my opinion.
Nonetheless, head coach Marco Sturm did hand Swayman both starts of a back-to-back a couple of weeks ago, so don’t rule that out while Boston tries to lock up a playoff spot sooner rather than later.
Tampa Bay Lightning
This is the final one of a seven-game homestand for Tampa Bay before they hit the road for four tough games against Buffalo, Ottawa, Montreal, and Boston again.
Its offense has remained difficult to slow down of late, scoring 4.28 GF/60 over its last 10 games and putting up six goals against Pittsburgh on Thursday.
Nikita Kucherov's production goes without saying at this point, but what makes Tampa Bay particularly dangerous right now is the supporting cast.
Jake Guentzel has seven goals and seven assists over the last 10 games, and Anthony Cirelli has been on a run worth paying attention to, scoring eight goals in that span, including a hat trick two nights ago.
Cirelli has 12 points over his last 10 and is around even money to record a point tonight, though he shifted away from the Kucherov line last game and played alongside Gage Goncalves and Oliver Bjorkstrand.
Brandon Hagel is sitting at 14 points over that stretch as well, though he is listed as day-to-day, so his status is worth keeping an eye on.
The defense has been equally impressive, ranking fourth in 5-on-5 xGA/60 (1.91) over their last 10. After a rough start to last month, it all adds up to a team that looks like it's hitting its stride at the right time.
In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn't had his best over the last five starts with a .880 SV%, and his one outing against Boston this season was a bit shaky, surrendering five goals on 34 shots in the Stadium Series.
Those games can be quirky for goaltenders, though, and at the end of the day, nitpicking Vasilevskiy feels like a losing battle.
Bruins vs. Lightning Prediction
I do not love doing this often, but I am going to play the -162 puck line here.
The Bruins are the best team on the puck line this season at 49-27, including 23-13 on the road and 38-11 as an underdog.
On top of that, as I mentioned, Boston has been elite in bounce-back spots, going 10-0-2 after a loss since the New Year while outscoring opponents 41-25 in those games.
The Lightning are 7-1-2 over their last 10, but have trailed in each of their last eight games and by multiple goals in five of them.
If the Bruins go up early and Tampa Bay's inevitable offensive firepower kicks in, it’ll be nice to have some breathing room.
Tampa Bay is the better team, but I think they are priced as the favorite by a touch too much. I’ll take the Bruins with a little cushion.
Pick: Bruins +1.5 (-162, FanDuel)
