The Utah Mammoth (38-30-6) and Seattle Kraken (32-30-11) will face off in a game that holds significant playoff implications Thursday evening. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Wash. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Mammoth are priced at +180 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6 (-120o/+100u). The Mammoth are a -135 favorite to win outright, while the Kraken are +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mammoth vs. Kraken predictions and NHL picks.
Mammoth vs. Kraken Odds, Pick
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +185 | 6.5 +112o / -114u | -130 |
| Kraken Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 6.5 +112o / -114u | +110 |
- Mammoth vs. Kraken Spread: Mammoth -1.5 (+180), Kraken +1.5 (-220)
- Mammoth vs. Kraken Over/Under: 6 (-120o / +100u)
- Mammoth vs. Kraken Moneyline: Mammoth -130, Kraken +110
Mammoth vs Kraken Polymarket Odds
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Mammoth vs. Kraken Preview
Utah Mammoth
For the majority of the season, the Mammoth have generally looked to be in their own tier above the other teams in the Western Conference Wild Card race. Suddenly, with a record of 4-5-1 over the last 10 games, a regulation loss would put them at legitimate risk of having to face the Colorado Avalanche in Round One and a small risk of missing the playoffs altogether.
The Mammoth are currently priced at +2800 to win the Cup, which is a shorter number than any other Wild Card team by a wide margin, and even a shorter number than the Pacific Division-leading Anaheim Ducks. The reason for this is that oddsmakers power-rate the Mammoth as a vastly superior team than any of the other teams in the mix, which comes down to their solid underlying profile and perceived roster strength.
Over the last 15 games, the Mammoth have played to a 51.63% expected goal share at even strength and hold the ninth-best xGA/60 rating. Their goaltending has started to falter, as they hold a team save percentage of .875 in that span, but Karel Vejmelka still projects as a strong option based on his play throughout the last two seasons.
Utah's top two offensive lines offer meaningful offensive upside, while the bottom units hold fewer replacement-level players than many other teams in the soft Western Conference race. The defense corps offers legitimate depth, with a strong right-handed puck-mover on all three units and no skater that has provided negative value to the team this season based on expected goals above replacement rating.
After a pair of ugly losses versus the Edmonton Oilers and Washington Capitals, the Mammoth responded with a convincing 6-2 win in a critical spot versus the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday. Vejmelka was solid, stopping 29 of 31 shots, while their top power-play unit played to its potential for a change, recording two goals following quality attacking sequences.
Vejmelka is expected to get the start in this matchup. He holds an .899 save percentage and a +9.7 GSAx rating across 57 appearances this season.
Barrett Hayton is the only Mammoth skater on the IR entering this matchup.
Seattle Kraken
The Kraken will be at a rest disadvantage in this spot after wrapping up a four-game road trip with a 3-0 loss versus the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday evening, moving their record to 32-30-11. They hold a -21 goal differential this season and rank 30th with an expected goal share of 45.37%.
They offer a respectable top four on the back end and decent depth up front, but as has been the case for the entirety of the franchise's history, there is a distinct lack of high-end talent in Seattle's lineup. In 12 games since the trade deadline, the Kraken rank 31st in the NHL with an xGF/60 rating of 2.78.
Bobby McMann has been a useful acquisition thus far with 11 points in nine games, but Jared McCann has struggled since being demoted from the top line, so the overall offensive impact added relative to what the team had previously has not necessarily been as significant as it sounds.
It's unclear whether the Kraken will go with Joey Daccord or Philipp Grubauer in goal at the time of writing. Grubauer has outperformed Daccord to this point, which is a surprise based on the previous three seasons. Daccord holds an .899 save percentage and a -2.6 GSAx, while Grubauer has played to a .911 save percentage and a +6.5 GSAx.
Mammoth vs. Kraken Prediction
This game holds plenty of playoff significance, and both teams should offer a playoff level of urgency and attention to detail. Based on the Action Network app, the over is a popular play, but I'm not personally a believer that this is a strong spot to expect a high-scoring affair.
While Utah's games have been quite high-event recently, its underlying defensive results have remained quite solid, which has been the case for much of Tourigny's tenure with the team. The Mammoth's goaltending has not been sharp recently, and they did not defend well in their recent matchups versus the Capitals and Oilers, but those games seem more likely to be outliers than an indicator of legitimate weaknesses.
The Kraken's offensive upside still remains unconvincing on paper, and the underlying numbers support the idea that they are not an overly strong team offensively. It seems logical to expect Utah to bring a sound defensive performance in this important matchup, and at +125, I see value in betting the Kraken to score under 2.5 goals.
Pick: Kraken Team Total Under 2.5
