Canadiens vs. Golden Knights NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: How to Back Montreal’s Series Odds

Canadiens vs. Golden Knights NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: How to Back Montreal’s Series Odds article feature image
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Francois Lacasse/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Cole Caufield (right).

Canadiens vs. Golden Knights Odds

Canadiens Odds +195
Golden Knights Odds -250
Over/Under 5
Time Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Monday and via BetMGM

You don’t get a second chance to make a first impression.

The old axiom is literally true by definition, but that stubbornness to not adjust one’s opinion with added information is a good way to see your bankroll go in the tank in sports betting.

Four games into the series, and as they say, “We’re right back where we started,” with the Montreal Canadiens and Vegas Golden Knights tied at 2 games apiece. Of course, this isn’t completely true, especially for us hockey bettors. 

For one, we’ve taken four steps towards deciding a variety of series derivative bets as discussed here after Game 1. Secondly, with the lopsided pricing between the heavily favored Golden Knights, picking one team or the other in all four games has resulted in profit if that team was the Habs and loss if that team was Vegas.

Finally, the four games have given us a handful of data points in each game and an overall understanding of the true quality of the teams relative to each other, something that was in question coming into this series. 

Now that we’ve established that you can’t judge a team by its division, or a book by its cover, let’s see if we can judge some people by the bets they make.

We can move past preconceived notions at this point. Whether it’s the four games played in this series, or the four games before that, or the four games before that, it’s time to admit that the Canadiens are simply good. They are not lucky, nor are they simply carried by Carey Price. They are a combination of skillful youth, veteran guile and a stout defense that’s required for postseason success. 

The sooner that you recognized Montreal’s quality during this Stanley Cup Playoff run, the better off your bankroll has been.

However, what’s done is done and we are forced to look forward to Game 5 to find a bet worth making, which isn’t actually all that hard in this case.

Just as they’ve been all playoffs long, the Canadiens moneyline is worth a bet at +200 or better at some books. Acknowledging that is the easy part, especially as we look at some of the key metric numbers that have been built up this series. 

Stat Canadiens Golden Knights
High-Danger Chances For 5v5 50 34
High-Danger Goals 5v5 5 3
High-Danger Conversion Rate 5v5 10% 8.8%
Expected Goals 5v5 (per game) 2.26 1.98
Power Play 1/6 0/11
Avg. Moneyline Implied Win Probability .360 .672

Considering that through four games of the series, the numbers in the Canadiens’ column are all better than the numbers in the Golden Knights’ column except the implied win probability, it’s a no-brainer to bet on the Canadiens regardless of the result.

That was never so clear than in Game 4, when the Habs had a ridiculous 17-2 advantage in even strength high-danger chances but lost the game 2-1 in overtime.

There are no guarantees, if there were, Corey Perry’s bloody face would have earned his team a power play but since the Knights have to commit a felony for a penalty to be called, we can only say a bet on Montreal is easy to make but hard to win. 

In doing so, though, we have to do some accounting from those derivative series bets we’ve made and consider those within the big picture of bankroll management. After betting on a playoff series, it can be difficult to figure out what you should do from a game-to-game standpoint.

Whether you threw caution to the wind after Game 1 with Montreal -1.5 Games at +1600 or +750 to win the series, or you took the more sensible approach and bet MTL +1.5 +290 and the Over 5.5 Games +125, I’m here to help with how you should approach Game 5 given what you may already have from what we recommended after Game 1, along with what that may say about you as a person.

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MTL to win series -1.5 games +1600

You’re a believer, and no amount of bad breaks in life are going to get you down. 

I’m impressed that you went all out in favor of the Canadiens after Game 1, but you clearly saw that the scoreboard was flattering to the Golden Knights in a game that could have easily seen Montreal take a lead into the first intermission.

Unfortunately, the Habs could have just as easily taken a 3-1 series lead back to Las Vegas with them. Also unfortunately, you now need Montreal to win the next two games to cash your bet. You’re committed to their success, but at 16-1 you’re probably not all that committed with what you laid down at that price. You might as well, keep firing, and bet the Habs’ moneyline. 

MTL to win Series +750

You thrive on blocking out the haters, and the noise doesn’t bother you.

Despite the Game 4 loss, you’re still in a good position relative to the current price of +290. You obviously didn’t care about the idea of needing the Habs to win a Game 7 in Las Vegas when you made the bet, so why would you now?

It would make your life a lot easier if Montreal could win Game 5, and you’ve probably bet on the Habs to victory in two of the last three games. Pass on this game, and hope for two chances to cash your ticket. 

MTL to win series +1.5 games +290

You understand value and math, and are a social butterfly, but you do not like big crowds.

To win this bet, you just need this series to get to Game 7. What happens in that game, on that Saturday, doesn’t matter to you because you’re going to be out living it up, free from lockdowns and quarantines.

You didn’t want to test the intimidating atmosphere in Vegas but didn’t want to play it safe either with a juicy +290 price. You’re also aware that at worst, this bet will come down to Montreal needing to win at home in Game 6. You’re also aware that their moneyline payout for their home games in Game 3 and 4 were around +150, so you know even with a loss in Game 5, you’re getting a deal on the Habs to force a deciding game.

Feel free to make plans on Tuesday too, you don’t need to bet on this one either.

Over 5.5 Total Games in the series +125

You’ve been called a coward in the past, but you don’t really believe that. After all, you asked that girl to dance back in 10th grade. Does that sound like a coward to you?!

Ok, you took the “easy” way out, but guess what — it was easy money. Not official when Montreal won Game 3, but certainly it seemed like getting the Habs to two wins would be the hard part, if you’d listened at all to those telling you how the North Division was such a joke this year.

Whether you bet the Habs moneyline along the way in Game 2 or 3, you’ve probably already been paid by your book as this 2-2 series has no choice but to go to six games. You’re flush with cash and have something to prove ever since Sarah said, “No” to at the Winter Formal. Fire away on the Montreal ML +200.

If you didn’t take my advice after Game 1, it’s OK, you’ll get the chronically undervalued underdog at a great price next time. Actually, here’s your chance to back the Habs, every bit the team the Golden Knights are thought to be, but with the chance to triple your money.

Just ask yourself, “What kind of person do I want to be?”

Pick: Canadiens +200 (if you’re not already on MTL in the series)

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