The Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche meet in Game 1 of the second round of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-131o / +110u). The Avalanche are a -189 favorite to win outright, while the Wild are +155 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wild vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks.
Wild vs. Avalanche Odds, Pick
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -161 | 5.5 -131o / +110u | +155 |
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 5.5 -131o / +110u | -189 |
- Wild vs. Avalanche Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+134 ), Wild +1.5 (-161)
- Wild vs. Avalanche Over/Under: 5.5 (-131o / +110u)
- Wild vs. Avalanche Moneyline: Wild +155, Avalanche -189
Wild vs Avalanche Kalshi Odds
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Wild vs. Avalanche Preview
Minnesota Wild
Prior to Game 1 of the Wild's tough series against the Dallas Stars, they were still priced at +1600 to win the Stanley Cup, making them the fifth-favorite out West. That price came down to the nightmare bracket they faced in the Central, as oddsmakers still power-rated them below the Stars and Avalanche.
The Wild have passed the first test, knocking off another legitimate Stanley Cup contender with a well-rounded performance in Round 1. Iron sharpens iron, and there's certainly a valid argument that Minnesota could benefit from already being battle-tested versus another elite side this postseason.
Historically, that trend does seem to hold some merit, as in the time since the NHL went back to the divisional playoff bracket in 2013-14, the majority of Stanley Cup winners have been teams that were forced to knock off another Cup favorite in the first two rounds.
The Wild outscored the Stars 14-4 at 5-on-5 in Round 1, which is certainly a very strong indicator entering a series versus an Avalanche side that was comfortably the best team in the NHL at 5-on-5 this season. While Minnesota's process did appear fairly solid, Jesper Wallstedt held a .970 save percentage in even-strength play and outplayed his counterpart, Jake Oettinger, considerably.
The Wild were one of the better defensive teams in the NHL this season, and had a strong showing in that regard in Round 1. Offensively, they did not generate that many high-danger looks versus the Stars, but they should have the defensive upside to make each game of this series into a tightly contested battle.
Minnesota held a 48.39% expected goal share at even strength versus the Stars and generated only 2.07 xGF/60. There might be a case that the Wild defended more effectively than public xG models entail, as they do not factor in whether a shooter is pressured and/or pre-shot movement, but Wallstedt's brilliance was inarguably a huge part of the story.
Quinn Hughes had a masterful showing versus the Stars with eight points in six games, controlling the overall flow of play very effectively on a stacked unit alongside gold medal winner Brock Faber. Whether the Hughes/Faber pairing can outperform Colorado's top pairing of Cale Makar and Devon Toews will be a key factor in determining the winner of this series, and both Hughes and Makar will surely be eager to prove that they are the best defenders in the game.
Matt Boldy was the best forward from either side in Round 1, and Kirill Kaprizov was not far behind. Historically, there has not really been a recent Stanley Cup winner with as weak a set of centers as the Wild have, but there also have not been many sides with two truly elite wingers, five high-quality defenders, and an elite goaltender in the pipes.
Joel Eriksson Ek is an excellent defensive center and, aided by one of the better defensive wingers in the league in Boldy, will likely be tasked with attempting to shut down Nathan MacKinnon's line at even strength. If that unit can hang tough in minutes versus Colorado's top line, it could help Minnesota hide the fact that it does not have a true superstar down the middle.
Eriksson Ek is listed as questionable for this matchup, and if he is to miss the game, it would leave the Wild with a highly unconvincing outlook at the critical center ice position.
While overall the Avs' defensive core may drive offence somewhat more effectively, Minnesota's unit looks slightly more impressive from a pure shutdown perspective. However, that slight edge is mitigated currently, as Jonas Brodin has officially been ruled out for this matchup. Brodin played to a +12.7 expected goals above replacement rating in the regular season, and remains one of the better blue-liners in the league defensively.
Wallstedt will get the start in goal. He played to a +3.7 GSAx and .924 save percentage in Round 1, after finishing with a +6.2 GSAx and .915 save percentage across 35 regular-season appearances.
Colorado Avalanche
One of the more commonly discussed talking points entering this series is the idea that Minnesota proved much more in Round 1 by knocking off the Stars, while the Avalanche swept a weak Kings side. Three of the Avalanche's four games last round held close scorelines throughout the majority of the matchup, which is again being viewed as a knock.
Given the extremely defensive approach the Kings took in the series, Colorado's inability to hang up crooked numbers on the scoreboard may not really be that much of a concern. The Avs trailed for only 3:21 in the series. While the games were close, the Kings never truly appeared that likely to get the additional goals needed to win each game, and it still felt as though Colorado coasted to the sweep quite comfortably.
The Avalanche were the best offensive team in the NHL this season, averaging 3.63 goals per game, and hold superior offensive depth to the Wild. They generated 3.54 xGF/60 in Round 1 versus a team trying to make games into a complete slog and, from an offensive perspective, still appear to be rated as the superior team in this series at even strength.
Given how strong the Wild are defensively at even strength and the fact that Wallstedt will seemingly stop the vast majority of shots that he sets up for a shooter, Colorado's power play is one notable concern for the team entering this series.
After finishing 27th in success rate throughout the regular season, the Avs succeeded on just 9.1% of opportunities versus the Kings. Given the talent on board, it continues to feel like a weakness that could transition to being a strength at a moment's notice, but the top unit continues to have a harder time than would be expected opening up plays through the box.
Defensively, Colorado was also the clear-cut best team in the NHL early on this season, but tailed off in that regard midway through the year, which potentially may have been due to a lack of urgency with the Presidents' Trophy and number one seed already looking like a foregone conclusion.
Scott Wedgewood was able to build on his fantastic regular season with a strong showing in Round 1, as he played to a +6.0 GSAx rating and .950 save percentage.
The Avalanche did benefit from cruising past the Kings in Round 1 from a health perspective, as only Josh Manson and Joel Kiviranta are currently on the IR and are both listed as day-to-day.
Wild vs. Avalanche Prediction
From the perspective of betting a side in this matchup, my lean would still be with the Wild at +125, but the price has seemingly been bet to the correct figure after opening at +150. The Wild should be capable of grinding this into a tight-checking, coin-flip type affair in which they limit true Grade-A scoring chances, which is a good approach on the road.
Dating back to the 2015 postseason (excluding COVID years), road teams are 321-333 with a +6.6% ROI. Given that the higher seed (better team on average) plays more games at home, that tells us that statistically, home ice advantage is essentially nonexistent in the postseason.
So I'm not saying to blindly back road teams or entirely pass on backing home sides in the playoffs. In spots where it feels like the cases for each team at the given numbers are relatively equal, it generally seems best to stray away from the home side; that home ice advantage continues to appear overvalued.
The first period under is 26-19 this postseason, and this does seem to be a decent spot to ride with that trend. It's a bet that I most prefer in the later stages of each series, when whistles tend to be put away to some extent and teams are entirely focused on locking things down defensively.
However, it seems to be a livable look in this particular series opener. The Wild were rock-solid defensively versus a high-powered Stars team in Round 1, and will likely look to lean on a safe, well-structured defensive game on the road in this matchup.
Colorado was also rock-solid defensively this season, and while it was in a matchup versus a notably awful offensive side, allowed only 1.25 goals against per game in Round 1 versus the Kings.
This also appears to be a good time to lock in Wallstedt to win the Conn Smythe at +6000. While the Wild's roster holds three convincing Conn Smythe candidates, based on the way they will likely need to sneak through this series and his play last round, the chances that Wallstedt will be one to win MVP if Minnesota were to win it all appear to be underrated.
Picks:
- First Period Under 1.5 Total Goals -110 (FanDuel, Play to -115)
- Jesper Wallstedt Conn Smythe +6000 (FanDuel, Play to +4500)
