Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 3/26: Overs for Everyone!
Brad Penner, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mathew Barzal
Yesterday, the projections performed … in a word … “meh.”
They went 2-2 vs. the openers, with the largest edge (Florida-Toronto under) losing hilariously fast. I referred to it yesterday as “holding your nose” taking that period under because it had the highest projected total of the entire day. And boy were there goals.
If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.
To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.
New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets
7 p.m. ET
Today, we have fewer games but several “over” edges.
The largest edge, not surprisingly, is in an Islanders game. The Islanders continue to be a team that plays a lot of games the market projects as low-scoring, but the team tends to do most of its damage in the first period.
This is a good combination for a model testing our hypothesis. The Islanders both score and allow a higher-than-average percentage of their goals in the first. Their opponent, Columbus, is a regular in the “over” department, as well, and has even larger-than-average splits in terms of their goal distribution by period.
Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections
Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.