NHL Odds, Best Bets for Game 5: Picks for Bruins vs Panthers, Kraken vs Avalanche (Wednesday, April 26)
Christopher Mast/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaden Schwartz of the Seattle Kraken waves a plush toy salmon to the home crowd.
With the first round of the 2022-23 NHL postseason winding down, the Bruins look to end their series with the Panthers on Wednesday night. Later in the evening, the Kraken and Avalanche clash in their series, which is tied 2-2.
Below, check out my best bets, including three player props, for tonight's NHL playoff games.
Panthers vs. Bruins
Patrice Bergeron Anytime Goalscorer (+210)
| Book | FanDuel |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bruins captain Patrice Bergeron will make his series debut in Game 5, and I believe tapping into the narrative that he can get on the score sheet makes a lot of sense.
Bergeron will settle onto the Bruins' top line between David Pastrnak and Tyler Bertuzzi. Pastrnak has been fairly quiet in the series relative to his lofty expectations in this series, but Bergeron's addition should make life a lot easier.
Bergeron will also make defending Boston's top power-play unit drastically more difficult. Florida has been able to press aggressively on Pastrnak and Marchand on the flanks in this series, and the Panthers will likely still stick with that look tonight.
Bergeron is one of the best shooters from the bumper position in the league. We see secondary threats like him thrive so often in big moments in the playoffs because teams will often have the first looks a power play wants snuffed out.
When that happens, we could see either a direct pass from Marchand to Bergeron from the half-wall, or something involving Marchand going down low to Bertuzzi at the goal mouth before a look to Bergeron.
Pick: Patrice Bergeron Anytime Goal Scorer (+210) |
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Kraken vs. Avalanche
Pick: Seattle Kraken ML (+165)
| Book | bet365 |
| Puck Drop | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Seattle will be very live to pull off the upset and take a 3-2 series over the defending champs tonight. The Kraken were completely dominant in Game 4, and by no means did the game ever even deserve to get into overtime. Seattle's depth compared to the Avs is starting to shine through and is helping it overcome a gigantic disadvantage in terms of superstar talent.
Throughout the series Colorado owns just a 50.4% expected goals share, which is very marginal considering it is priced as a -185 favorite in this matchup. The reason Colorado is controlling more of the play has been the incredibly high level of play from its superstars, but in this matchup the Avs will be short two of those pieces.
Cale Makar will be sidelined due to suspension, and that leaves a gigantic hole on the blue line. It will also make Colorado's elite power play slightly less potent. Valeri Nichushkin sounds doubtful to play in this matchup, which is another key absence from the second line.
A point I will always continue to make all playoffs every year is that playing more highly juiced favorites because of home ice is not a sound betting strategy, and that in general home-ice advantage does not matter much in terms of actual results. Road teams are clipping at nearly .500 dating back to 2017, and they're on fire in this first round. That mark is especially impressive considering higher seeds (better teams) are more likely to play an extra home game and pad the data for home sides.
By no means is my point that it's an advantage to be on the road, but simply that it's closer to 50/50 than common knowledge suggests if we base our opinion on actual results.
Colorado closed at -155 in Game 4 with Makar in the lineup and was entirely dominated. To back the Avs on Wednesday at -185, you'd need to firmly believe in home ice mattering and that the defending champs have a significantly higher level than we have seen so far in this series.
I do not think either of those notions is a fact we can bank on. The value is on betting the Kraken.
Kraken vs. Avalanche
Pick: Jaden Schwartz Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-103)
| Book | BetRivers |
| Puck Drop | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Schwartz was a complete force in Game 4 of the series, and he clearly took his play to another level to help cover the absence of top left winger Jared McCann. Schwartz is a proven playoff performer and has elevated his level through the opening four matchups with two goals and two assists.
Schwartz has generated 18 shots on goal in this series, including 11 on goal in Game 4 from 14 attempts. This number has simply not moved enough, making the bet a very logical add.
Kraken vs. Avalanche
Pick: Ryan Donato Anytime Goalscorer (+620)
| Book | FanDuel |
| Puck Drop | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Donato is a competent scorer who netted 11 goals in 71 regular-season games. Eleven in 71 would normally make a price of +600 sound just about right or even a little too low right?
Well, that's not the case if Donato remains on the top line in this matchup so keep your eyes out for Seattle's lines at morning skate. After Jared McCann's injury in Game 4, Donato took over a great spot on Seattle's top line alongside Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle.
The greatest reason Donato only finished with 11 goals this season was because in general, he had drastically worse roles than he could see tonight. His 1.05 goals per 60 minutes actually ranked fifth on the team this season and was a higher rate than names like Matty Beniers, Schwartz and even Andre Burakovsky when he was healthy.
I wouldn't bet this if Donato does not end up playing in a significantly increased role, so keep your eyes out for lines from the morning skate.
Pick: Ryan Donato Anytime Goal Scorer (+620) |
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