NHL Odds, Prediction, Preview: Avalanche vs Maple Leafs (Saturday, January 13)
(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) Pictured: Martin Jones
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Avalanche Odds | +102 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -122 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -138o / +112u |
The Maple Leafs have been somewhat of a hot-and-cold team this season.
Their latest hot streak might have closed with their 4-3 overtime loss to the Islanders on Thursday, but they'll try to prove otherwise against a tough adversary in Colorado.
Let's preview the upcoming contest and offer an Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto sometimes gets criticized for being top-heavy, which isn't surprising given how much its top-four forwards make, but the Avalanche are cut from the same cloth.
Forwards Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Valeri Nichushkin have all surpassed the 20-goal and 40-point milestones while offensive defenseman Cale Makar has supplied nine goals and 48 points in 37 outings.
However, no other Avalanche players have reached the 15-goal or 25-point milestones and just one other, Ryan Johansen, has hit the 10-goal mark.
The Avalanche don't even have average goaltending. Alexandar Georgiev has an impressive 23-9-2 record, but that's despite his 2.88 GAA and .897 save percentage. Colorado is truly a house of cards being supported entirely by a small handful of elite players.
Still, if you're going to be carried by a handful of players, you couldn't pick a much better group. In particular, MacKinnon has been about as sure a bet as there is. He has an incredible 21 multi-point games this year compared to just seven instances in which he's been held off the scoresheet.
Meanwhile, Rantanen has recorded at least a point in 13 of his past 15 outings while Nichushkin has provided 12 goals and 21 points over his past 15 games.
Colorado is in big trouble if you're able to shut down its stars, but almost no team has been able to actually do that. As a result, the Avalanche boast a commanding 27-12-3 record.
The unenviable task of holding back the Avalanche's core will likely fall to Martin Jones.
Going into the season, that would have been billed as a disastrous mismatch given Jones' 3.09 GAA and .895 save percentage in 220 games from 2018-19 through 2022-23.
However, since joining the Maple Leafs from the AHL (due to Joseph Woll suffering an ankle injury), Jones has been phenomenal, posting an 8-3-1 record, a 2.15 GAA and a .928 save percentage in 13 outings. Not every start has gone well, but it's fair to say Toronto owes a good amount of its recent success to Jones.
He's still probably not going to be able to completely silence the Avalanche, but the Maple Leafs don't need him to, especially while Auston Matthews is rolling. The 26-year-old forward has an incredible 33 tallies and 48 points in 38 outings this year, including 19 goals over his past 17 outings.
Remarkably, Matthews might not even be the team's MVP. William Nylander recently signed an eight-year, $92-million extension, and his phenomenal play this season (21 goals, 57 points) helped land him that massive payday.
Nylander will enter Saturday's action with four goals and nine points over his past five outings.
Mitchell Marner and John Tavares round out the Leafs' core, having supplied 45 and 34 points, respectively. Like Colorado, the quality of Toronto's forwards falls significantly after that, and like Colorado, that hasn't hurt the Leafs much.
Toronto still ranks fourth offensively with 3.56 goals per game, just a hair behind the Avalanche's 3.64.
The Leafs have been somewhat inconsistent, but their 21-10-8 record is nothing to scoff at.
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Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither team is regarded as being a real favorite, which is fair given how evenly matched these squads are.
At their core, Toronto and Colorado are offensive juggernauts with questionable depth and goaltending. Arguably, though, the Maple Leafs have found the solution to the second problem, at least for now.
It might be too much to hope for Jones to keep this up, but there's no denying he's done his part. Jones has a Goals Saved Above Expected of 9.4, so you can't even claim that he's being propped up by strong defensive play. Sure, Jones might simply be hot at the right time, but for now I see him as the extra factor that tilts this contest in the Leafs' favor.
It also doesn't hurt that the game is being played in Toronto and that the Avalanche are a mediocre 9-7-3 on the road.
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline -115
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