NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Canucks vs Stars (Thursday, December 21)
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Canucks vs. Stars Odds
| Canucks Odds | +120 |
| Stars Odds | -144 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110 / -110 |
The Vancouver Canucks hosted the Dallas Stars on Nov. 4 and earned a 2-0 victory, but these are two superb teams that are fairly evenly matched, so we won't necessarily get the same result in Dallas on Thursday. Let's take a closer look by previewing the upcoming contest and offering a Canucks vs. Stars prediction.
With a 22-9-2 record, Vancouver is just a single point behind Vegas in the battle for the Pacific Division title. However, the Canucks easily top the league with their outstanding goal differential of plus-44. That's thanks to having the league's top offense with 3.79 goals per game and the second-best defense, surrendering just 2.42 goals per contest.
Goaltending is at the heart of Vancouver's rise this season. Thatcher Demko had a difficult, injury-riddled 2022-23 campaign, but he's back in a huge way this season with a 16-7-0 record, 2.34 GAA and .921 save percentage over 23 starts. Demko was in net against Dallas last time, saving 27 shots to earn the shutout victory, and he will likely be who the Stars face again on Thursday night.
Demko hasn't been the only cause of the Canucks' success, though. Vancouver has been giving him tremendous goal support. Just nine players in the league have recorded over 40 points at this stage, and three of them — J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and defenseman Quinn Hughes — are employed by the Canucks. On top of that, Brock Boeser ranks second in goal scoring with 23 markers through 33 contests. Vancouver also has five players with at least 10 goals and 10 players with a minimum of five tallies, so the team has some depth as well as high-end talent.
The only point of mild concern is the Canucks' analytics don't paint quite as rosy a picture. They're tied for 12th with an xGA/60 of 3.04, which you could argue is more of a sign that Demko is doing his part than an example of the team being lucky. But they also rank 11th offensively with an xGF/60 of 3.25, which is much easier to paint as a sign of a team over-performing. To be clear, none of this is suggesting Vancouver is bad, but that expected goal differential per 60 of 0.18, which puts it 11th in the league, looks far less impressive than its actual goal differential of plus-44.
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To what extent do those moderate analytic warning signs matter against Dallas, though? The Stars own expected goal differential per 60 of 0.16, so perhaps both teams have overperformed a bit. However, in the case of the Stars, you don't have to do a deeper dive to find a point of concern. Their biggest problem is surface level.
Jake Oettinger is supposed to be the backbone of this team, but he's struggled with an 11-7-2 record, 2.93 GAA and .901 save percentage in 21 contests and is now week-to-week with a lower-body injury. With Oettinger out, Dallas has leaned on Scott Wedgewood, but the 31-year-old goaltender has a 3.21 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 10 games, so he's unlikely to thwart Vancouver's potent offense. Fortunately, he might not have to.
Wedgewood has a fantastic 7-1-2 record and Dallas is 18-8-4 overall despite subpar goaltending, thanks to its strong offense. The Stars have been a step below the Canucks with 3.50 goals per game, but that still ranks them sixth offensively.
Unlike Vancouver, Dallas' offensive strength doesn't come from its top-end talent — no one on the team has 15 goals or 30 points — but they do have depth. The Stars have seven forwards and one defenseman who have provided at least 20 points through 30 games. It allows them to have a first line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, which can match favorably with most of the league's top units, while still deploying players like Matt Duchene (10 goals, 27 points) and Jamie Benn (five goals, 21 points) on the second and third lines, respectively. The result is Dallas has a major scoring threat on the ice for the vast majority of the game.
Canucks vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
Dallas is viewed as a significant favorite, as illustrated by FanDuel's moneyline, which offers a potential payout of -144 for taking the Stars versus +120 for selecting Vancouver. The game being in Dallas is likely part of the reason why, but the Canucks have been solid on the road (10-6-1) while Dallas has actually been a little worse at home (9-5-1) than away (9-3-3).
With Oettinger unavailable and Vancouver's offense being as good or better than Dallas', I actually would rather take the Canucks tonight, so I'll happily recommend taking advantage of their underdog status.
Pick: Vancouver Canucks +120
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