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NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Stars vs. Red Wings Betting Preview (Jan. 21)

NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Stars vs. Red Wings Betting Preview (Jan. 21) article feature image
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Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Leddy (left) and Dylan Larkin (right).

  • The Red Wings take on the Stars on Friday night looking to avenge a loss to Dallas from November.
  • Backed by solid goaltending and a home crowd, Detroit has a solid chance to do just that.
  • Tony Sartori explains his top bet for the game below.

Stars vs. Red Wings Odds

Stars Odds -125
Red Wings Odds +105
Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-120)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Stars continue their four-game road trip as they travel to Detroit to take on the Red Wings on Friday.

Detroit is searching for its third straight win as it returns to Little Caesars Arena, looking to avenge its 5-2 loss to Dallas back in November.

Can the young players in Detroit pull off the win, or will this more experienced Dallas team prove to be too much to handle once again?

Dallas Stars

The Stars enter this game on the second half of a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights. That many games in a short stretch is impactful halfway through the season for any team, let alone an older Dallas squad.

The Stars have flat out stunk on the road, as 13 of their 18 losses have come away from Dallas. More recently, the Stars have lost nine of their last 10 road games with that lone win coming against one of the league’s worst teams in Arizona, which started its backup goaltender.

With Braden Holtby starting Wednesday night, we should expect to see Jake Oettinger in net for Dallas tonight. While Oettinger is a promising young goaltender who should be the guy in Dallas for years to come, his performance has started to slide lately.

Oettinger has allowed nine goals in his past two starts, including five goals on 19 shots against the Canadiens, who are one of the league’s worst offenses.

As a whole, the underlying numbers are not terrific for Oettinger this season either. He ranks just 20th amongst starting goalies in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes.

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Detroit Red Wings

While we know about Dallas’ woes away from home, the opposite rings true for the Red Wings. The Red Wings have seen 13 of their 18 wins this season at their home barn, including nine of their last 13.

Since returning to the Detroit front office in 2019, Red Wings legend Steve Yzerman has done a great job rebuilding this roster. There’s loads of young talent on this team, specifically with future stars Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.

One advantage of having a young roster is speed and explosiveness, and I expect to see that come into play tonight following a three-day break.

Another strong acquisition for Yzerman has been young goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic.

Nedeljkovic has been great in net recently, allowing only 12 total goals in his last six starts. While the majority of those games were against poor offensive teams, Dallas also struggles in the offensive zone, as it ranks 19th in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF).

Red Wings vs. Stars Pick

The underlying metrics suggest that these teams’ offenses are relatively equal, while the Stars have the advantage in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA), as they rank 11 spots higher than Detroit.

The Stars may have a defensive edge, but I think the Red Wings as home dogs is the betting angle to attack. Both offenses rank similarly, the Red Wings have the goaltender edge, and the Red Wings have the home-ice advantage.

Give me the more rested team with the better goalie at home as an underdog.

Pick: Detroit Red Wings ML +100 (Play up to -110)

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