NHL Odds, Prediction, Preview: Islanders vs Capitals Pick (Wednesday, Dec. 20)
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Islanders vs Capitals Odds
| Islanders Odds | -102 |
| Capitals Odds | -118 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +116 / -142 |
The Islanders earned a 3-1 victory against the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday, thereby improving to 10-2-3 during the last 15 contests. However, New York has yet to win in the second half of a back-to-back this season. So, we'll carefully weigh that factor while we preview the upcoming contest and offer an Islanders vs Capitals prediction.
New York has a reputation as a defense-first team that ekes out wins in low-scoring games. In fact, that's precisely how New York defeated Edmonton yesterday, as well. However, that kind of victory has been the exception rather than the rule lately. Dating back to Nov. 18, the Islanders have actually been the NHL's second-best team offensively, scoring 3.80 goals per game.
Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat unsurprisingly have led that charge with 19 and 18 points, respectively, during the last 15 contests. But, New York has had depth, too: six forwards (Horvat, Barzal, Brock Nelson, Simon Holmstrom, Anders Lee and Kyle Palmieri) have scored at least six goals, and another five players have at least 11 contests during the same span. On top of that, defenseman Noah Dobson has 19 assists during his past 15 outings, bringing him up to five markers and 33 points in 31 outings.
New York has been consistently scoring too, netting at least three goals in 11 consecutive games. To put that into context, the Islanders had at least three goals in just seven of their first 14 outings this year, so they've done a complete 180.
Maintaining that performance will be important tonight, because — after Ilya Sorokin started Tuesday — Semyon Varlamov is expected to be in net versus the Capitals. The 35-year-old goaltender's woes have been just as consistent as the Islanders' scoring success. During his last eight appearances, Varlamov has surrendered three or more goals in every game.
That leads us to a potential problem: The Islanders have posted a 0-2-2 record while averaging just 1.75 goals when playing on no rest.
New York has scored at least three goals in 11 straight games — but, want to know what happened 12 contests ago? The Islanders suffered a 1-0 shootout loss to Philadelphia in the second half of a back-to-back. To be fair, the Islanders also played on no rest Saturday — and the offense showed up for that contest, but it still wasn't enough in a 5-3 loss to Montreal with Varlamov in net.
As long as we're talking about what happened right before a prolonged streak, we should mention what occurred in Varlamov's last start before he began his current slump: The veteran goaltender faced the Capitals and made 32 saves en route to a 3-0 shutout victory.
He's far from the only goaltender who has found success against Washington, which has managed just 2.39 goals per game this season. With Alex Ovechkin showing his age, Nicklas Backstrom (hip) shut down and Max Pacioretty (Achilles) not quite ready to make his season debut, the Capitals don't have much going offensively. While the Islanders have three players who have surpassed the 30-point mark, no Washington player has eclipsed 20 points yet.
At least Darcy Kuemper has done well lately, stopping 60-of-63 shots (.952 save percentage), but he's been a mixed bag overall with a 7-6-2 record, 2.97 GAA and .897 save percentage in 15 contests. He was also in net for that loss to the Islanders on Nov. 2, turning aside just 18 of 21 shots in that start.
Perhaps Washington will use Charlie Lindgren instead, who boasts an impressive 2.45 GAA and .925 save percentage in 12 appearances. However, Lindgren has surrendered at least three goals in four of his last five games, so he might end up having just as tough a time against the red hot Islanders as Kuemper would.
Washington has a solid 15-9-4 record despite its poor offense and -10 goal differential, largely by being a better example of what people assume the Islanders are. The Capitals have been squeaking by in tight games, going 8-1-4 in contests decided by a single goal compared to a 3-7 record in games where the difference is at least three markers.
Islanders vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
With the Islanders tired, the game being in Washington and the Capitals' decent record, oddsmakers are painting the Islanders as mild underdogs. That's worth taking advantage of.
Yes, those are factors of concern, but when you consider how strong the Islanders have been recently, coupled with the Capitals looking worse on paper than their record suggests, this seems like a good time to chase the higher potential payout that comes with selecting the underdog.
Pick: New York Islanders +104 (play down to -105)
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