Jets vs Blackhawks: NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction
(Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images). Pictured: Gabriel Vilardi (13) and Mark Scheifele (55).
Jets vs. Blackhawks Odds
| Jets Odds | -280 |
| Blackhawks Odds | +225 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 +100/-118 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Winnipeg Jets vs. Chicago Blackhawks on Friday, February 23 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Winnipeg and Chicago are separated by 40 points in the standings, making this one of the most lopsided possible matchups. That creates its own kind of challenge because even taking the Jets on the puck line would result in only a moderate return. Is there any better option, though?
Let's preview the upcoming contest and offer a Jets vs. Blackhawks prediction.
With the gap between opponents being this big, we don't need to do a traditional analysis of the Jets. We can take it on faith that the 34-15-5 squad is better than the 15-39-3 Blackhawks. Instead, let's ask the question: Is there any reason at all to be skeptical about the Jets' chances of winning?
On the injury front, the answer is a simple no. Winnipeg was without Mark Scheifele (16 goals and 47 points in 48 games) from Jan. 13-27 and Kyle Connor (20 goals and 37 points in 38 outings) from Dec. 12 to Jan. 13, leaving the Jets with an incomplete top line for about two months. However, not only are the Jets entering Friday's action completely healthy, but they're deeper than they've been at any other time this season after acquiring Sean Monahan from Montreal on Feb. 2. Monahan has provided five goals over his past three contests.
This game is being played in Chicago, though, so does that hurt the Jets any? Not substantially. While Chicago is at least acceptable at home with an 11-15-2 record compared to an abysmal 4-24-1 on the road, the Jets are a strong road squad, posting a 15-8-3 record. So there's no reason to believe Winnipeg is unable to win at the United Center.
Perhaps the Jets aren't actually as good as their record suggests. What do the numbers say there? Well, the Jets' goal differential is the seventh best in the league at +37. However, if you look at their expected goals differential per 60 of 0.11 instead, then the Jets look fairly middling. You could argue that their xGA/60 of 2.9 doesn't tell the whole story, though, because it's compensated for by the brilliant play of Connor Hellebuyck, who has a 26-11-3 record, 2.2 GAA and .925 save percentage across 40 outings. Plus, even if you take Winnipeg's expected goals differential per 60 at face value, it's still far superior than Chicago's -1.04.
This is where the argument in favor of Chicago takes a hit. Even if you can find a little hole to poke in Winnipeg to imply that the team isn't quite as good as its record suggests, that's not enough to close the gap between these two squads.
In addition to having the worst record in the NHL, the Blackhawks have the worst offense (2.07 goals per game), the fifth-worst defense (3.53 goals allowed per game) and the second-worst goal differential (-83). Although 98 players have reached the 40-point mark, none of them are employed by the Blackhawks. Chicago also has just two skaters with at least 30 points and four players with at least 20; Winnipeg has five and 11, respectively.
At least Connor Bedard has returned from his jaw injury, so the Blackhawks have one genuine high-end forward. But it hasn't been enough to change their fate. Although Bedard has two goals and six points in four contests since returning, Chicago has still gone 1-3-0 in that span.
There is one true silver lining, though. Chicago has done okay against the Jets this year. The Blackhawks have still won just one of three meetings, but Chicago has managed to keep all three contests close, being outscored by a combined total of just 6-4. Two of those three contests did come during the span when Winnipeg was missing at least one of Scheifele and Connor, but Bedard was also absent for one of those games, which is arguably a far bigger setback for the Blackhawks than the Jets losing one of their top forwards.
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Jets vs. Blackhawks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Jets are almost certainly going to win this game. Will they win by enough to cover the 1.5-goal spread? I suspect so, but I do have the smallest of reservations because I suspect this will be a low-scoring affair just as the other three matches have been. Chicago is abysmal offensively and up against an elite goaltender while the Jets are a squad that's excelled on the back of their netminding despite having a merely mediocre forward corps.
If taking Winnipeg on the puck line came with a potentially significant payout, I probably would recommend it anyway, but at the time of writing, the FanDuel odds for it are comparable to taking the Under of 5.5 goals, which I feel is the safer bet.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-110 at FanDuel; Play to -120)
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