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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Jets vs. Kings (October 27)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Jets vs. Kings (October 27) article feature image
Credit:

Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Mason Appleton #22 of the Winnipeg Jets.

  • The Winnepeg Jets and Los Angeles Kings will face off Thursday night at Crypto.com Arena.
  • The Kings enter as short favorites, but Tony Sartori is looking to fade the home favorites.
  • He details how to get value on a player prop below.

Jets vs. Kings Odds

Jets Odds +125
Kings Odds -145
Over/Under 6 (-120/+100)
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
TV BSW
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

We have a Western Conference tilt on Thursday as the Pacific Division’s Los Angeles Kings host the Central Division’s Winnipeg Jets. Last season, Winnipeg won two of the three meetings between these two clubs.

Will the Jets take care of business once again, or can the Kings grab a victory as a favorite on home ice?

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Winnipeg Jets

A storyline in this young season so far for the Winnipeg Jets is the injury to Nikolaj Ehlers, who was ruled out for this West Coast trip due to a lower-body injury. In Ehlers’ absence, new head coach Rick Bowness has plucked Mason Appleton from the third line to fill in for the injured winger on the first line alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele.

Appleton has played well with his increased opportunity due to Ehlers’ injury, logging three assists over four games. It helps that he plays alongside Scheifele and Connor, who can make any winger’s job easy in finding the scoresheet.

Will the success in his new role continue against Los Angeles? In his three career games against the Kings as a member of the Jets, Appleton has recorded a goal on four shots.

Although, Appleton’s point prop is more realistic to wager on because Kyle Connor can score from anywhere, which highly increases the likelihood of him being involved on the score sheet. The Connor-Scheifele-Appleton line has looked strong, producing 2.23 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).


Los Angeles Kings

The Los Angeles Kings enter this contest following their 4-2 upset victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning and they host the Maple Leafs on Saturday, so they must be careful not to lose focus on this matchup against Winnipeg that is sandwiched in between two high-profile games. Projected to take the crease for the Kings is Jonathan Quick, who has not started the season in great form.

Although Quick had a somewhat resurgent campaign last year, regression has hit through the beginning of this season. Through five games, he is 1-3 with a .889 SV% and 3.94 GAA.

Among starting goaltenders, Quick ranks just 21st in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. This poor start is likely to continue against Winnipeg.

Across 15 career starts against the Jets, Quick is 6-6-2 with an underwhelming .898 SV%. In front of Quick is a blue line that has underperformed defensively.

At 5v5, the Kings rank just 20th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). While Los Angeles boasts plenty of talented defensemen, they tend to be offensive-minded, especially a couple of the young guys like Sean Durzi and Brandt Clark.

The Kings have now allowed four or more goals in six of their first eight games.

Jets vs. Kings Pick

More than anything else, this play is a fade of the leaky Los Angeles defense. The Kings had a lot of success last year, but a big part of that was because of the resurgent year Quick had between the pipes.

They re-tooled the offense a bit over the off-season with the acquisition of Kevin Fiala and the younger guys on the back end keep getting better with experience, so I am not saying that the Kings should be worried just yet. That being said, opposing offenses have scored in bunches against LA to start the year.

Looking at the prop market, Appleton’s line to record just one point stands out. Playing alongside the two most talented guys on the roster, Appleton could easily just luck into a point — but he likely will not need to rely on luck given his strong play in the increased role.

Pick: Mason Appleton o0.5 Points (Play up to -110)

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