NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Flames (Thursday, January 18)
(Photo by Gerry Thomas/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Elias Lindholm
Maple Leafs vs. Flames Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -120 |
| Flames Odds | +100 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -128 / +104 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames on Thursday, Jan. 18 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Toronto blew a 2-0 lead against the Oilers on Tuesday as things haven’t been going its way. On top of that, the Leafs have lost three in a row and are in danger of slipping to fifth in the Atlantic Division.
Conversely, the Flames are red hot (pardon the pun). They have won four in a row, including an overtime win against the Senators. These teams are trending in opposite directions, but let's make a prediction for Maple Leafs vs. Flames.
Toronto is loaded up front. The trio of William Nylander, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner can sometimes be too much to handle (although Nylander’s been pointless in his past four game).
The problem is the depth. Morgan Rielly is a staple on the blue line and chips in, but captain John Tavares has had a down year compared to what we’re used to seeing from him.
With all the power up front, Toronto plays a pretty mediocre 5-on-5 game. The Leafs are 14th in expected goals with a 51.5 xGF% and rank 18th defensively with a 2.71 xGA/60.
Luckily for them, the power play is typically very efficient, scoring 25.8% of the time. Their penalty kill isn’t as impressive though, only succeeding 77% of the time.
We’ll probably see Martin Jones tonight since Ilya Samsonov has been a trainwreck all season. Jones, who’s notorious for letting in easy goals, is playing well in 13 starts. He has a .922 SV% and an impressive 10.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
A lot of Calgary’s most recent success is attributed to Yegor Sharangovich and Blake Coleman. The Russian winger has six points in his past four games and Coleman, who was mainly a bottom-six player, has eight points in his past four (including goals in four straight).
Additionally, Nazem Kadri is riding a seven-game point streak and Elias Lindholm is playing at a productive pace.
The Flames, despite their current hot streak, aren’t very good at 5-on-5. They’re 23rd with a 48.49 xGF% and are 17th with a 2.7 xGA/60.
Calgary’s power play has been dreadful all season, only scoring at a 13.7% rate. However, its penalty kill has served the team well, succeeding 84.5% of the time.
I’m curious to see who starts tonight. With Jacob Markstrom dealing with a lower-body injury, we’ll either see Dan Vladar or Dustin Wolf. With Vladar starting on Tuesday, perhaps we'll see Wolf? In five starts, Wolf has been underwhelming with an .893 SV% and a -5.2 GSAx.
Maple Leafs vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
We have two teams trending in opposite directions and it'll be interesting to see if those trends halt tonight.
Calgary is a +100 underdog, but this stretch may just be an aberration. The Flames were horrible up until this stretch, but notching seven wins in 10 games is no easy feat.
Toronto, on the other hand, is vulnerable. It has no depth and the goaltending leaves much to be desired.
These teams both play a similar brand of hockey — mediocre and unspectacular. Toronto has an elite power play, but with Calgary’s penalty kill, that may be canceled out.
Pick: Calgary Flames Moneyline +100
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