NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Panthers vs Penguins
(Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images). Pictured: Sergei Bobrovsky.
Panthers vs. Penguins Odds
| Panthers Odds | -134 |
| Penguins Odds | +112 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +124 / -128 |
We're barely past the halfway mark of the season, but trade rumors are mounting in Pittsburgh as the potential of a playoff run becomes increasingly questionable. A win against a top-end team like Florida would help keep hope alive, but what are the chances of that happening?
Let's preview the upcoming contest and offer a Panthers vs. Penguins prediction.
While the Penguins are desperately trying to hold onto the idea that their Stanley Cup window hasn't completely closed, there's no question the Panthers are still in the heart of their own window. After reaching the Stanley Cup Final last year, Florida is poised for another serious run with its 29-14-4 record.
Although the pieces are largely the same as they were in 2022-23, the root of the Panthers' success has changed. A year ago, they were 25th defensively with an xGA/60 of 3.42, but they rank third at 2.75 this campaign. That's aided 35-year-old goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a 22-10-2 record, 2.53 GAA and .909 save percentage across 35 contests. Bobrovsky has held his opponents to just one goal or less in eight starts, including against the Penguins in a 3-1 victory Dec. 8.
Florida's transformation into an elite defensive team hasn't come at a substantial offensive cost either. The team is a respectable 12th offensively with 3.23 goals per game and has been truly outstanding over its last 15 games, averaging four goals per game in that span. That recent outburst is in part thanks to Matthew Tkachuk, who underperformed by his high standards with five goals and 22 points over his first 32 contests this year, but has provided 26 points (10 goals) across his past 15 outings.
The offense isn't a one-man show, though. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Aleksander Barkov have each joined Tkachuk in recording over 45 points while Reinhart is also chasing the goal-scoring title with 35 tallies through 47 appearances.
Put simply, this will not be an easy game for Pittsburgh.
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Making matters a little harder for Pittsburgh will be the absence of Reilly Smith (upper body). The 32-year-old has eight goals and 20 points in 40 contests this season, so he hasn't exactly turned heads with his play, but the Penguins don't have scoring depth to spare.
Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Evgeni Malkin are all trying to justify the Penguins keeping the gang together by supplying 48, 47 and 38 points, respectively, through 44 games. Offensive defensemen Erik Karlsson (seven goals, 26 assists) and Kris Letang (three goals, 26 assists) have mostly done their part too. Going into the season, you might have asked if that core — given its age and injury history — could stay healthy, but so far all five of them have managed to play in every game. However, even with the core healthy and still performing at a high level, Pittsburgh is tied for 20th offensively with 2.98 goals per game.
This isn't like the team that won its second straight Stanley Cup in 2017 after leading the league offensively in the regular season despite missing Guentzel and Letang for roughly half the season and being without Malkin for 20 games. The modern Penguins' problem isn't that the core is too old — at least, that's not the problem yet — or that they've had bad luck. The issue is that — whether because of years of trading away picks, front-office mismanagement or a combination of the two — the core is no longer backed by a strong supporting cast.
At least Tristan Jarry has been doing well … or was doing well. The 28-year-old netminder had a 2.47 GAA and .916 save percentage in 24 contests through December, but since the start of January, he has a 1-3-2 record, 2.90 GAA and .901 save percentage in seven games.
On occasion, Pittsburgh's offense will come alive with a big game, but for the most part, the Penguins can't win when Jarry is subpar — and lately, he has been.
Panthers vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite Pittsburgh's shortcomings, the Penguins are just mild underdogs, and it is true that Pittsburgh isn't without its appeal. Sure, the supporting cast isn't what it used to be, but that's still a strong core and it does keep the Penguins somewhat competitive. It's not enough, though, against a team as strong as the Panthers, especially during a stretch in which Jarry is struggling.
I'm comfortable taking the Panthers, and I like their chances enough to select the 60 min Moneyline, which offers a better potential payout with the tradeoff that you lose the bet if the game goes to overtime (just three of Florida's 29 wins have required more than 60 minutes).
Pick: Florida Panthers 60 Min Moneyline (+120 via FanDuel | Play to +110)
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