NHL Odds, Prediction, Preview: Penguins vs Lightning Pick (Wednesday, Dec. 6)
Via Mark LoMoglio/Getty Images. Pictured: Nikita Kucherov #86 of the Tampa Bay Lightning against the Dallas Stars during the first period at Amalie Arena on December 4, 2023 in Tampa, Florida.
Penguins vs. Lightning Odds
| Penguins Odds | +114 |
| Lightning Odds | -137 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -112/ -108 |
Here's everything you need to know about Penguins vs. Lightning on Wednesday, Dec. 6 – our expert NHL preview and prediction.
The Penguins are racing against time to win another Stanley Cup before their aging stars decline, but despite going all in this summer, they're questionable to even make the playoffs.
Pittsburgh has an 11-10-3 record after dropping seven of its last 10 contests with one of the few silver linings in that span being a 4-2 victory over Tampa Bay last Thursday.
We'll dive into Pittsburgh's chances of repeating that feat by previewing the upcoming contest and offering a Penguins vs. Lightning prediction and betting preview below.
The Penguins entered the season with some major question marks, but they have answered several of those questions resoundingly.
Erik Karlsson has thrived in Pittsburgh since the summer blockbuster trade by providing six goals and 19 points through 24 games.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have both stayed healthy and haven't shown any signs of aging, providing 26 and 21 points, respectively.
Jake Guentzel, who had ankle surgery in August, not only played in the season opener but is also enjoying one of the best campaigns of his career with nine goals and 28 points.
After taking a bit of a step back last season with 20 goals and 46 points in 81 contests, Bryan Rust has rebounded in a big way with 10 goals and 20 points in 21 outings. However, that comeback pales in comparison to goaltender Tristan Jarry, who has improved from a 2.90 GAA and a .909 save percentage last year to a 2.47 GAA and a .918 save percentage through 18 outings this season.
At that surface level, it sounds like each point of potential concern – injuries, stars declining and goaltending – has gone in the Penguins' favor this campaign, so why would they come up short of a playoff spot if the season ended today? Bad luck, arguably.
Pittsburgh has outscored the competition 73-62 despite winning fewer than half of its games. That's because the Penguins are just 2-3-3 in one-goal games compared to 6-3 in contests decided by more than three markers.
Their recent stretch is the main culprit – Pittsburgh is 2-2-3 over its last seven contests and won just one of six one-goal contests over that span.
You could argue that's less bad luck and more of a mental or intangibles problem. Perhaps Pittsburgh, for whatever reason, just has trouble closing the deal.
The bad-luck argument goes deeper, though. Pittsburgh ranks just 19th offensively with 3.04 goals per game, but in terms of xGF/60, the Penguins rank sixth with 3.47. Pittsburgh's Goals For Above Expected is -11.94, which is the fourth-worst in the NHL and suggests the squad has dealt with some bad puck luck.
Consequently, it might be best not to underestimate the Penguins by assuming that their mediocre record means they're a mediocre team.
Could the same be said of Tampa Bay? The Lightning have a similarly mediocre record at 11-10-5, but is that really representative of their quality of play?
They certainly have a core worth being jealous over.
Nikita Kucherov is one of the league's best with 16 goals and 42 points in 25 contests, and he's far from the Lightning's only scoring threat. Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and Brandon Hagel have each provided at least 10 goals and 20 points this year. Tampa Bay also has a pair of defensemen in Victor Hedman (five goals, 20 assists) and Mikhail Sergachev (two goals, 15 assists) who have thrived offensively as well.
The offense seems fine, and their collective 3.35 goals per game – good for ninth in the league – support that. However, Tampa Bay has also suffered from bad luck, just in a different form than Pittsburgh.
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The Lightning's offense might make them a difficult team to play against, but Andrei Vasilevskiy elevates them to a true contender, so when he suffered a back injury that required surgery in September, Tampa Bay was put in a difficult position.
His replacement, Jonas Johansson, couldn't fill the void with his poor 3.44 Goals Against Average and .892 save percentage in 19 contests. For the first 19 games of the Lightning's season, that was the biggest problem, but Vasilevskiy's return on Nov. 24 didn't immediately bring an end to the misery.
The former Vezina Trophy winner posted a 3.87 GAA and an .859 save percentage over his first four starts this campaign, resulting in a 1-3-0 record.
The silver lining is Vasilevskiy probably needed time to shake off the rust after missing roughly two months of playing time, and his 25-save shutout on Monday over Dallas – which ranks seventh offensively with 3.39 goals per game – might signal that his adjustment period has ended.
If that's true, then the rest of the league is in trouble.
Penguins vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's one other X factor to consider: Tampa Bay is playing the first of back-to-back games, so while Vasilevskiy will likely start, it's possible Johansson will be in net instead to save Vasilevskiy for Thursday's game in Nashville.
If Johansson starts instead of Vasilevskiy, then take Pittsburgh on the moneyline.
However, Vasilevskiy is the probable starter, so my default pick is Tampa Bay on the moneyline. While Pittsburgh's offense is better than it appears at first glance, Vasilevskiy should neutralize the strong Pittsburgh offense now that he has shaken off his rust.
Combine him with Tampa Bay's own potent offense, and the Lightning should be the next team to narrowly best the Penguins.
Pick: Lightning -132 (Play to -140)
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