NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Sharks vs Sabres (Monday, January 15)
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Sharks vs. Sabres Odds
| Sharks Odds | +210 |
| Sabres Odds | -260 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -118o / -104u |
Buffalo is having a pretty bad year, but the Sabres should at least be able to beat the Sharks… right? Let's preview the upcoming contest and offer a Sharks vs. Sabres prediction.
With a 5-4 loss to Ottawa on Saturday, the Sharks became the first team to lose 30 games in regulation this year, dropping them to 10-30-3 overall. Twelve teams didn't lose 30 games in the entire 2022-23 campaign, and San Jose has fallen to that point just a hair past the halfway point. To put it another way, the Sharks would need to go 34-4-1 over their final 39 games to reach 92 points, which might be enough for San Jose to just barely squeak into the playoffs.
This season is well and truly lost. It has been for a while, and the Sharks certainly are playing like it. They did manage to eke out a 3-2 win over Montreal on Thursday, but that came after losing 12 contests in a row — eight of them by more than three goals. In two contests during that 12-game losing streak, San Jose even gave up seven goals, bringing the number of games in which the Sharks have surrendered at least seven goals up to five.
San Jose is allowing 4.07 goals per game, which is on pace to be the second-worst mark in the salary cap era behind only the 2022-23 Anaheim Ducks. Kaapo Kähkönen, who is expected to start in goal Monday, has a 3.70 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 20 outings this year.
San Jose also ranks last offensively this year, scoring just 2.05 goals per game. Just two members of the team have at least 20 points.
The silver lining is Logan Couture (lower body) is getting close to returning and might even be an option Monday. He won't singlehandedly make the offense good, but he would take his place as one of the team's few serious scoring threats.
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The other silver lining for the Sharks is they knew going into the season they were going to be bad. Buffalo, though, entered the campaign with cautious optimism after falling just short of the playoffs last year with a 42-33-7 record. Instead, the Sabres are 18-21-4 and watching their hopes of obtaining a postseason berth for the first time since 2011 slip away.
The big issue has been Buffalo's offense. That was this team's strength in 2022-23, ranking third with 3.57 goals per game, but this campaign the Sabres are tied for 22nd at 2.95 goals per contest. Rather than the culprit being major injuries or the collapse of one player, it's mostly just been the team's core forwards all simultaneously taking a step back. Tage Thompson has dropped from 1.21 PPG in 2022-23 to 0.82 this year, Alex Tuch has gone from 1.07 to 0.81, Jeff Skinner has declined from 1.04 to 0.87 and defenseman Rasmus Dahlin has slipped from 0.94 to 0.81. None of those are dramatic declines, but they add up.
If Buffalo had good goaltending, it might be able to overcome those drops, but the Sabres' netminding has been inconsistent. The hope was Devon Levi would have a strong rookie campaign, but that was perhaps too much to put on the 22-year-old's shoulders. He's been fine at times, but his 8-7-2 record, 3.32 GAA and .889 save percentage in 19 outings leaves plenty to be desired. All the same, he'll likely be in net Monday after Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (2.91 GAA, .901 save percentage) got the start Saturday.
Sharks vs. Sabres
Betting Pick & Prediction
Oddsmakers are treating the Sabres as heavy favorites, which speaks far more about how poorly San Jose is regarded than it is an endorsement of Buffalo. I agree with that assessment, but the problem is the potential payout for selecting Buffalo on the puck line is consequently worse than I'd like. But given how frequently the Sharks lose big, I can't help but gravitate towards that option anyways.
If you want an alternate play, the under of 6.5 goals is interesting given the Sharks' terrible offense and Buffalo playing below expectations, but that's counterbalanced by both team's subpar goaltending.
Pick: Buffalo Sabres puck line -108 (play down to -115)
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