2021 New York City Mayoral Election Odds: Eric Adams the Favorite on Final Day
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images. Pictured: NYC Mayor candidate Eric Adams
2021 NYC Mayor Odds
Odds as of Tuesday morning and via Betfair. New to betting? Learn more about American odds here.
The New York City Mayoral Election has concluded, with Eric Adams in the lead. But ranked-choice voting results await.
This election will be the largest (and most high-profile) to use ranked-choice voting, meaning voters can rank their top five choices, and those rankings will come into play if their higher-ranked candidates are eliminated. We may not get official results for several months.
Given the city’s voting preferences, the Democratic primary will almost surely determine the winner in the election this fall, and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is out in front at the moment. Current NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio can’t run again due to term limits.
With the juice removed from the betting lines, Adams had a greater than 50% chance to win entering election day. Sportsbooks bake a tax into their odds, so we’ve removed that tax to show the true probability based on these odds.
Adams took control of the race over the last month, with former presidential candidate and early favorite Andrew Yang dropping from a greater than 70% chance to less than 10% as early voting began and polling showed Adams was the top choice.
Betting on political elections is not legal in the United States, but is in Europe. We’ll be updating this post as odds change over the next few days.
NYC Mayoral Race Key Candidates
Adams is the Brooklyn Borough President, former New York State Senator (20th district) and former NYPD captain.
Adams has been one of the top fundraisers in this election and has strong support from key organizations in the city. He’s long been the second betting choice behind Yang, and became the favorite about a month ago as polls based on early voting were favorable toward him.
Garcia has been gaining momentum in recent weeks, becoming the second betting choice after toiling in the bottom tier of candidates for much of the last year. Garcia is the former commissioner of the NYC Department of Sanitation.
The most high-profile candidate on the board because of his social media following and 2020 presidential candidacy, Yang was long viewed as the favorite by betting markets until one month ago, when Adams overtook him. That’s in large part due to recent polling that shows Yang as the fourth most-popular candidate.
Garcia and Yang actually joined forces over the weekend and campaigned together because of ranked-choice voting. They need to bring down Adams’ support collectively to have a chance.
Wiley served as counsel to NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, and has been a political analyst on MSNBC for the last few years.
She’s been stuck between the 5-10% probability range over the last few months, and still has just an outside shot to win.
Stringer is the New York City Comptroller, and has an outside shot to win at 16-1 (just under 5% with the juice removed).
Stringer was actually the second betting choice for much of last year, but has dipped significantly as early votes and polling rolled in.
Sliwa is running in the Republican primary, and will likely face the Democratic winner this fall. Given how New York City typically votes, he’s a longshot to win, with Betfair listing him at 50-1.
Sliwa is the founder of the Guardian Angels, a street patrol group that began in the late 1970s to curb crime on New York’s streets and subways.
Sliwa is running against businessman and political fundraiser Fernando Mateo in the Republican primary.