Polymarket US prices Anthropic at about 68% to complete an IPO before the end of 2026.
That makes Anthropic the clear outlier on the Polymarket board. Discord is around 14%, Revolut 8%, and OpenAI just 4%. The market is basically saying Anthropic is the only company here with a realistic shot at getting across the finish line this year.
The question is whether its reported November IPO timeline still holds.
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Anthropic IPO Timeline Projection
Anthropic announced in June that it had confidentially filed its draft S-1. That alone wasn’t enough to settle the market, so the important next step is making the filing public and moving into the roadshow.
The Wall Street Journal reported on September 18 that Anthropic is now targeting November rather than October. The extra time would allow investors to see third-quarter results before the company starts marketing the deal.
That delay sounds meaningful, but the calendar still leaves room.
Recent IPOs have generally taken around three to four weeks to move from a public S-1 to pricing. On that timeline, an Anthropic filing in late October would comfortably support a November listing. Even a filing around November 20 could theoretically leave enough time to get a deal done before the holiday slowdown.
That makes the public S-1 the next major checkpoint.
Why the odds fell
The bigger concern isn’t really the one-month delay. It’s Dario Amodei.
On September 12, Anthropic’s CEO published an essay arguing that AI companies should intentionally slow the pace of development at the frontier. Around the same time, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said an IPO this year would be “ill-advised” and later clarified that OpenAI would not list in 2026.
That naturally raised the question of whether Anthropic could make the same decision.
But so far, the actual IPO process appears to be moving forward.
The Journal reported that the November timing was chosen before the latest debate over slowing AI development and was unrelated to Amodei’s essay. Reuters then reported that Anthropic is working on a structure that would give its founders voting control after the IPO. The company is also reportedly putting together a $15 billion revolving credit facility as part of its preparations.
Those are not guarantees of an IPO. But they look much more like a company preparing to go public than one preparing to shelve the process.
What the board is saying
The gap is pretty striking.
Discord filed confidentially earlier this year but never made its registration public. Revolut’s CEO has repeatedly pointed toward 2028 or later. OpenAI has effectively ruled out 2026.
Anthropic is different. It has already filed confidentially, advisers are reportedly working toward November, and recent reporting continues to describe active IPO preparation.
So at 68%, the market isn’t really asking whether Anthropic can go public this year.
It’s asking whether management still wants to.
The trade
I like Anthropic Yes at 68 cents.
The November target gives the company some room for another modest delay, while the developments since Amodei’s essay continue to point toward an active IPO process.
The easiest way to track the position is the public S-1.
If Anthropic gets that filing out by late October or early November, the path to a 2026 listing should become much clearer. If there is still no public filing around November 20, the timeline starts getting uncomfortable because Anthropic would be trying to squeeze the roadshow and pricing into December.
