Update, Oct. 8: Paxton's leaked-audio problem
Talarico's lead has widened since this article first published. On Polymarket, he's now priced at 67% to win the seat, up from 61%, with Paxton down to 34%. That's the largest gap of the cycle on either prediction market.
The move tracks a rough week for Paxton. Politico and Axios have each published separate leaked recordings from a private September fundraiser in which Paxton told donors he has "never been in a race where I felt less control" over his own campaign, adding that messaging decisions are coming "from D.C." A third recording, obtained by Axios, caught him blaming high diesel prices and the Iran war for dragging on his numbers, a notable admission from a candidate who has publicly defended the administration's Iran policy. A separate recording from the same fundraiser, obtained by The New York Times, caught him saying Trump's September midterm convention in Dallas had hurt rather than helped his campaign.
Polling still shows a tighter race than the market does. RealClearPolitics has Talarico up 48-45, well inside the 33-point gap Polymarket is now pricing. That gap between polling and market pricing is even wider than it was at the time of our original report.
Tyler James Webber, political expert at The Action Network, commented:
"The Texas Senate race has become as much a referendum on Paxton as a partisan contest. On the same ballot, Polymarket has Democrats at 27% to win the governor's race and 67% to win the Senate seat. That 40-point gap is ticket-splitting Republicans who backed Cornyn in the primary and still haven't come around to Paxton and his baggage."
"The latest Fox News polling shows one in five Cornyn primary voters is backing Talarico in the general, and Paxton is 18 points underwater on favorability. That same poll has Talarico leading just 51–49. So the market is pricing Talarico as a two-to-one favorite in a race still polling within the margin of error. The 67-cent price assumes those Cornyn voters actually show up for Talarico on Nov. 3."
Prediction markets have flipped on the Texas Senate race, and the numbers are now working against the Republican.
Polymarket has Democrat James Talarico at 61% to win the seat, with Republican Ken Paxton at 39%. A separate market on the Republican side of the same race shows Paxton at 39% and Talarico's side at 62%, effectively confirming the same lean from the other direction.
That is a reversal from where this race sat for most of the past year. Paxton traded above 75% on Polymarket for long stretches after he beat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 2026 GOP primary runoff, a win built on Donald Trump's endorsement. Talarico closed that gap through the spring and summer, and by mid-August had pulled into a lead on both Polymarket and Kalshi for the first time.
Texas Senate Winner Odds – Democrat
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Polling tells a tighter story than the market does. The RealClearPolitics average has Talarico ahead by 2.6 points, 47.6% to 45.0%. A recent poll cited by NBC News put Talarico's lead within the margin of error. Neither result matches Polymarket's 61-39 split, which suggests traders are pricing in more than the raw poll numbers, likely fundraising, turnout modeling and the broader national environment around Trump's approval rating.
Not every model agrees with the market. Pollsmax, which runs 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals, currently gives Paxton a 77% chance of winning and projects him to take 52.4% of the vote against Talarico's 47.6%. That model still rates the race Lean Republican. It is a reminder that a betting market and a statistical forecast can read the same race very differently, and that Polymarket's price reflects what traders are willing to pay right now, not a polling-weighted probability.
Texas Senate Winner Odds – Repulican
The stakes go beyond one seat. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats would need to defend every seat they currently hold and flip four more to take back control. Texas is not one of the four seats Democrats are counting on, but no Democrat has won a statewide race in the state in more than 30 years. A Talarico win would be the first crack in that streak since the early 1990s.
Polymarket's market page lists the resolution source as a consensus of the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC, and it will settle once all three call the race for the same candidate. Election day is November 3, 2026.
You can take a look at a replay of the market below:
