Prediction markets have flipped on the Texas Senate race, and the numbers are now working against the Republican.
Polymarket has Democrat James Talarico at 61% to win the seat, with Republican Ken Paxton at 39%. A separate market on the Republican side of the same race shows Paxton at 39% and Talarico's side at 62%, effectively confirming the same lean from the other direction.
That is a reversal from where this race sat for most of the past year. Paxton traded above 75% on Polymarket for long stretches after he beat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 2026 GOP primary runoff, a win built on Donald Trump's endorsement. Talarico closed that gap through the spring and summer, and by mid-August had pulled into a lead on both Polymarket and Kalshi for the first time.
Texas Senate Winner Odds – Democrat
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Polling tells a tighter story than the market does. The RealClearPolitics average has Talarico ahead by 2.6 points, 47.6% to 45.0%. A recent poll cited by NBC News put Talarico's lead within the margin of error. Neither result matches Polymarket's 61-39 split, which suggests traders are pricing in more than the raw poll numbers, likely fundraising, turnout modeling and the broader national environment around Trump's approval rating.
Not every model agrees with the market. Pollsmax, which runs 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals, currently gives Paxton a 77% chance of winning and projects him to take 52.4% of the vote against Talarico's 47.6%. That model still rates the race Lean Republican. It is a reminder that a betting market and a statistical forecast can read the same race very differently, and that Polymarket's price reflects what traders are willing to pay right now, not a polling-weighted probability.
Texas Senate Winner Odds – Repulican
The stakes go beyond one seat. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats would need to defend every seat they currently hold and flip four more to take back control. Texas is not one of the four seats Democrats are counting on, but no Democrat has won a statewide race in the state in more than 30 years. A Talarico win would be the first crack in that streak since the early 1990s.
Polymarket's market page lists the resolution source as a consensus of the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC, and it will settle once all three call the race for the same candidate. Election day is November 3, 2026.
You can take a look at a replay of the market below:
