There are a number of huge games across Europe on Sunday, including in Italy’s Serie A, where the top two teams — Juventus and Napoli — face tough matchups against sides chasing top-six finishes in Sampdoria and A.C. Milan, respectively. There is, however, no doubt that the biggest game in Italy is the Derby della Capitale (2:45 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff) between Lazio and Roma at Stadio Olimpico.

Clubs Going in Opposite Directions

The two Rome rivals are tied with 60 points, with Lazio in third place, one spot ahead of Roma in goal differential. And while the standings are tight, the contrast in morale between the two camps couldn’t be more stark after the sides were on opposite ends of huge upsets this week.

On Tuesday, Roma came back from a 4-1 first-leg deficit against Barcelona to reach the Champions League semifinals with a 3-0 win that will go down in the club’s history. Lazio, on the other hand, were on the wrong end of an unexpected late rally from Austrian club Salzburg, which knocked them out of the Europa League. The Italian side led 4-2 after an eventful first leg and stretched their advantage in the second half before Salzburg netted four goals in 20 minutes to complete a remarkable comeback.

It’s not just the psychological implications that Lazio must overcome in the derby this weekend, but the extra physical fatigue of playing two days later than their neighbors. The outright odds haven’t quite taken both factors into account, and while Roma — nominally the away side despite sharing a home at the Stadio Olimpico — are narrow favorites, odds of 2.65 (+165) from Marathon Bet on Roma to win still represent good value.



Unlock this article + all the EDGE benefits


Already an EDGE member? Sign In

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
Follow Martin Laurence on Twitter