Rome Derby Betting: Stakes Are High Between Roma and Lazio
There are a number of huge games across Europe on Sunday, including in Italy's Serie A, where the top two teams — Juventus and Napoli — face tough matchups against sides chasing top-six finishes in Sampdoria and A.C. Milan, respectively. There is, however, no doubt that the biggest game in Italy is the Derby della Capitale (2:45 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff) between Lazio and Roma at Stadio Olimpico.
Clubs Going in Opposite Directions
The two Rome rivals are tied with 60 points, with Lazio in third place, one spot ahead of Roma in goal differential. And while the standings are tight, the contrast in morale between the two camps couldn't be more stark after the sides were on opposite ends of huge upsets this week.
On Tuesday, Roma came back from a 4-1 first-leg deficit against Barcelona to reach the Champions League semifinals with a 3-0 win that will go down in the club’s history. Lazio, on the other hand, were on the wrong end of an unexpected late rally from Austrian club Salzburg, which knocked them out of the Europa League. The Italian side led 4-2 after an eventful first leg and stretched their advantage in the second half before Salzburg netted four goals in 20 minutes to complete a remarkable comeback.
It's not just the psychological implications that Lazio must overcome in the derby this weekend, but the extra physical fatigue of playing two days later than their neighbors. The outright odds haven't quite taken both factors into account, and while Roma — nominally the away side despite sharing a home at the Stadio Olimpico — are narrow favorites, odds of 2.65 (+165) from Marathon Bet on Roma to win still represent good value.
Big Stage
Roma have had the better of the most recent meetings between the sides, winning five of the last six in the league. And while neither is in particularly sparkling form in Serie A in general, Roma have fared far better in big matches such as this one.
Indeed, Lazio are winless in their last five against fellow top-six sides, losing four, and they've won just once at home against sides currently in the top half of Serie A. Roma, by comparison, have won five of their eight away games against teams in the top 10 thus far, and four of their last five away from home in total.
Prop Markets
For a more specific market, I would look into the goal times between two sides that will be emotionally and physically drained. Both clubs know the way to goal, that's for sure. Lazio are actually the league’s top scorers with 75 goals going into the weekend, and tired defenders will surely leave spaces to exploit late in the game.
The fixture has featured plenty of late excitement in recent years, with drama assured until the very end. Ten of the last 22 meetings between the two have seen goals scored in the 85th minute or later, while only two have failed to see a goal scored after the hour mark.
Of the 63 goals scored in said matches, 44 (70%) have been scored after halftime, while 18 (29%) have been scored in the 75th minute or later. Betway offers a market for the final goal to be scored from that point onwards, and even money is certainly a tempting bet. However, the best option in my mind, given the recent record between the two and the circumstances heading into this game, is on the highest-scoring half being the second, with an excellent price of 2.10 (+110) with both Paddy Power and Betfair.
If you're tuning in, be sure not to change the channel before the final whistle is blown.
All odds current as of Friday evening.
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