Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Odds, Predictions, Picks | Champions League Match Preview

Wednesday, Mar. 13

4 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Atlético Madrid Odds	+190
Inter Milan Odds	+140
Draw	+240
Over / Under	2.5  -105 / -118

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Inter Milan enter the second leg of their Champions League against Atlético Madrid with the best form of any team in all of Europe right now. The Italian side is cruising toward a Serie A title, convincingly won the Italian Supercoppa and is poised to make another deep run in the Champions League knockout round. Inter lost 1-0 to Manchester City in last year's final and this season's Inter has taken a clear step forward in underlying quality compared to that team.

Inter won the first leg at home in Milan, 1-0, three weeks ago. The match was more lopsided than the final score would suggest as Inter tallied 2.3 expected goals and outshot Atlético 19-7. The Italian side has won 13 matches consecutively in all competitions and kept a clean sheet in nine of them. The strength of Inter is in their versatility and ability to beat opponents with or without the majority of possession and ball control.

As Atlético are forced to eventually play more open and take more risks to get back into this Champions League tie, there will be more opportunities for Inter to show their superiority in transition. The market has fallen in love with Inter of late and the prices continue to move toward Inter ahead of this all-important second leg in the Spanish capital on Wednesday.

Read on for my Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan prediction and Champions League match preview.

Inter have plenty of experience defending a lead in a two-legged knockout tie in the last calendar year. The Nerazzurri held a one goal lead after the first leg of their round of 16 tie against Porto last season and they played out a goalless draw in Portugal to advance. Inter have also proven themselves capable of winning on the road, as the Italian side won 2-0 on the road at Benfica in the quarterfinal round last year. They then comfortably held two goal leads in both the quarterfinal and semifinal second legs.

Inter were unbeaten in six knockout matches before the final last year despite holding less of the possession in five of the six contests. When facing Milan and Benfica, Inter did most of their finest work attacking on the break and didn't have much settled possession. Inter have the benefit of leading Serie A in both 10+ pass sequences and direct attacks, showing that they can win in a variety of ways.

Marcus Thuram went off injured ago halftime in the first leg, but Inter's depth is also underrated this season. They've been able to rotate top strikers Lautaro Martinez and Thuram and get serviceable backup production from Alexis Sanchez and Marko Arnautovic. Inter didn't play Martinez in the weekend match against Bologna to make sure he's fully rested for Wednesday. Thuram is back fit, which gives Inter attacking options off the bench if needed for freshness.

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We've seen Atlético Madrid play down a goal at home in a CL second leg before and it's quite likely that Atlético will remain cautious and defense first in the first 30-45 minutes of the match. Atlético showed in the final 15 minutes of the first leg that they have more attacking threat than past teams. Once Inter did take the lead through an Arnautovic goal, Atlético managed three shots and threatened the Inter penalty area consistently in the closing stages of the match. Even though it didn't result in a goal, Atlético will feel confident about its chances of scoring a goal on Wednesday.

It was ultimately a quick change of possession and direct attack that led to Inter's goal in the first leg, and the abilities of Atlético defensively when they don't have a ton of numbers behind the ball are not nearly what they used to be in past years of Diego Simeone teams.

Atlético Madrid are fifth in non-penalty xG allowed per match in La Liga this season. Given their consistent top three standing there, that's a notable drop off. They're not an elite shot suppression team anymore either, as they rank 10th in expected threat allowed and 13th in shots allowed per match. 

Inter Milan opened +105 on the three-way moneyline ahead of the first leg and were as low as -134 to advance at one book. By the time the first leg kicked off, Inter were -165 on the moneyline and -275 on the to advance line. The markets opened the second leg as a true pick'em, -110 each way on the draw no bet line. Once again, the market loves this Inter team, whose odds to win the whole tournament have shortened from 22/1 pre-round of 16 to 9/1 currently.

Inter's ability to play on the break is a consistently undervalued skill in Champions League knockouts. Just ask Real Madrid about their success in the competition despite not being a dominant pressing and possession monster.

Serie A is rated higher than La Liga right now, and Inter are dominating Serie A by more than a half goal per match than Atleti's La Liga numbers. I'd bet Inter draw no bet up to -140 in the second leg. Their

Pick: Inter Milan – draw no bet (-140)