Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Betting Prediction, Picks: The Single-Game Parlay to Back

Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Odds

For Wednesday's marquee Champions League fixture, FC Barcelona welcome Bayern Munich to the Camp Nou.

After a thrilling 3-3 draw two weeks ago, Barcelona now finds themselves in a must-win spot on Wednesday with help needed from Inter Milan. On the flip-side, Bayern Munich have locked up a spot in the knockouts after winning their first four matches, including a 4-2 victory on Matchday 4 against Viktoria Plzen.

When these teams met on Matchday 2 in Munich, Bayern produced a 2-0 win, the fifth straight victory for Bayern over Barcelona.

Barcelona In Need of Better Defense

Although Barcelona lost the reverse fixture in Germany, the underlying metrics suggested they were unlucky.

The Blaugrana actually won the match on expected goals (xG) and on big chances (3-2), per fotmob.com. However, in terms of expected goals on target (xGOT), Bayern carried a 2.37-1.14 advantage, and even though it was outshot, they put an equal number of shots on target as Barcelona.

If Barca hope to earn a result in this match, they will have to clean up their defensive act in a hurry.

Including that xGOT output against Bayern, Xavi's side has now conceded 2.32 xGOT per 90 minutes in three combined fixtures against Bayern Munich and Inter Milan and 2.10 xGOT per 90 minutes in those three fixtures and a La Liga match against Real Madrid.

The good news for Barcelona ahead of this fixture is that they have excelled at the Camp Nou this season. Through eight home fixtures, Barcelona is 6-0-2 (W-L-D) with a +1.51 xGDiff per 90 minutes.

Bayern Munich Not Perfect

If there's any flaw to be had with Bayern's start to the season, it's the underlying defensive metrics away from home.

Through eight combined Bundesliga and Champions League fixtures, manager Julian Nagelsmann's side is allowing 1.01 xGOT per 90 minutes.

Comparatively, the defense is conceding a mere 0.96 xGOT per 90 minutes in seven combined domestic and European fixtures, per fotmob.com.

Offensively, this side remains nearly as good away from Munich. In those same eight road fixtures, Bayern has recorded 3.02 xGOT per 90 minutes.

Some of that is based on the competition level, but this remains a squad that has notched 2.28 xGOT per 90 minutes at Borussia Dortmund, Union Berlin and Inter Milan.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Given how Wednesday's schedule shapes up, the handicap of this match could change entirely.

If Inter get a win against Plzen, Barcelona are done. Without that added motivation, I'm not sure if I want to back an inspired Barcelona performance as a short home favorite.

That said, what does intrigue me in this match is the total. Although the reverse fixture finished 2-0, these sides combined for 3.74 xG, 3.51 xGOT and five big scoring chances.

If there's a unit to be trusted in this game, it's the Bayern attack. Either way, Barcelona have to go for it in this match, which will in turn leave the Spanish outfit vulnerable at the back. But, given how well they performed against Bayern AND that they now find themselves at home, expect Barcelona to generate quality chances too.

For those reasons, my top play for this match is a single-game parlay of each team over 1.5 goals (+180). Personally, I'll bet this to +150.

The Pick: Single-Game Parlay: Both Teams Over 1.5 Goals (+180)