Barcelona vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction | Champions League Betting Preview
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FC Barcelona vs Shakhtar Donetsk Odds
| FC Barcelona Odds | -450 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +110 / -138 |
Barcelona look to add another win to their UEFA Champions League group campaign when they host Shakhtar Donetsk in a crucial Group H encounter on Wednesday.
The Blaugranaare seeking to return to a dominant European force after multiple underwhelming UCL campaigns. They have failed to advance from the group stage in their last two Champions League appearances. However, that skid seems to be coming to an end as they are well set to advance to the knockout rounds after winning both of their opening two matches and sitting first in their group with six points.
Meanwhile, the Miners will look to add another big upset to their belt. The Ukrainian powerhouse have one win and one loss in their first two Champions League matches.
Could Barcelona be the newest team on Shakhtar's list of Champions League upsets, or will Barcelona continue to prove they are a team to once again take seriously in this competition?
Here is my breakdown of the Barcelona vs Shakhtar Donetsk match.
FC Barcelona
Manger Xavi is looking to bring Barcelona back to the prime they were in when he played. He led his side to a La Liga title last year and has them off and running in the Champions League. They won 5-0 in their opening Group H game against Royal Antwerp and followed that up with a gutsy 1-0 win over FC Porto.
In this new era of Barcelona soccer, they are remaining true to their possession-style core, averaging over 67% possession per game. They have also found their shooting touch with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, who will be absent Wednesday, settling in during his second year. To start the 2023-24 campaign, The Blaugrana are averaging 2.16 goals per outing.
However, though they are certainly flying offensively, the most important part of this Barca side since Xavi has taken over is their defense. During their La Liga title run last season, they allowed just 0.53 goals per game.
There has been slight regression this season defensively as they are allowing 1.00 goals per game. However, some of that can be tied to bad luck as their expected goals against is 0.84.
Moreover, at home Barcelona become even better in all sections of the pitches. They have been perfect in all competitions at home since the start of the new season. In front of their home fans they are averaging 2.4 goals per game to only 0.4 goals against.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar head into their third Champions League match following their 3-2 comeback win over Royal Antwerp in their last UCL outing. It was just their second tournament win in their last 15 group-stage matches.
And while the Ukraine side will look to keep that momentum rolling, they will have to do so with a different manager at the helm. Previous manager Patrick van Leeuwen was let go last week after just 12 matches in charge. Marino Pušić was appointed to take over the job on Tuesday. He is coming from current Dutch champion Feyenoord.
However, it is still being figured out whether Pušić will be able to be on the sideline on Wednesday against Barcelona given the quick turnaround. If not, sporting director Darijo Srna will represent the team on the bench.
Regardless of who is on the sideline on Wednesday, they will need to figure out a game plan to break down a disciplined Barcelona defense. They are currently averaging 2.00 goals per match, which is nearly exactly on par with their expected goals of 1.99.
Defensively Shakhtar are holding their own as well. They are conceding exactly one goal a game and in their first match since releasing Patrick van Leeuwen, they recorded a 3-0 clean sheet victory over Cherkasi.
Barcelona vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Prediction
Whether Shakhtar will find a way to break down the Barcelona defense, or vice versa, Shakhtar have not played in a 0-0 draw since August of 2022, so expect a goal… but not many of them.
Barcelona head into Wednesday with a full injury list. Xavi will have to form a lineup likely without Jules Kounde, Sergi Roberto, Frenkie de Jong, Pedri, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha. Without their top goal scorers, it is safe to assume that things will be sloppy up top for the Catalan outfit.
Meanwhile, Shakhtar have a fairly healthy squad. But due to their coaching change, they will be unable to mix in a new and in-depth game plan against this Barcelona team, which is likely one of the best teams they have faced so far this season.
While I believe Shakhtar will continue to keep their no 0-0 streak alive, due to new coaches and injuries I expect both teams goal scoring to slow down when they face off.
Grab the under 3.5 while you still can.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-138 via BetRivers)
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