Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona Odds, Picks and Betting Prediction: Underdog Has the Edge in this Champions League Clash

Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona Odds

For the fourth time in three years, Bayern Munich and Barcelona meet in the Champions League on Tuesday.

The history between these two is very lopsided with Bayern Munich beating Barcelona in the 2020 semifinals 8-2 and then twice in the group stage last season by a combined score of 7-1. Well, things have gotten even more intriguing as longtime Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski has made the move to Barcelona over the summer.

Barcelona have been a machine under Xavi, going unbeaten in their last 17 matches, while Bayern Munich have drawn three straight matches in the Bundesliga. Quite simply, it does not get better than this in the Champions League group stage.

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich were one of the best teams in the world a season ago, putting up a +1.50 xGD per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga, with only Manchester City and Liverpool topping that in Europe's big-five leagues. However, losing Lewandowski, who led Europe with a 1.08 xG per 90-minute scoring rate, does negatively affect Bayern, especially when they don't have a "true" striker on their roster.

However, the loads of attacking options like Sadio Mane, Kingsley Coman (out for this match), Serge Gnarby, Leroy Sane, Thomas Muller, and Jamal Musiala give Bayern a distinct advantage over Barcelona that has plagued the Spain side for years: overloads. Bayern does this but not in the typical manner where a lot of teams try to create overloads on the wings; Bayern does this by centrally being very narrow to overwhelm the center backs, while also allowing them to counter press very easily if they lose the ball.

They've given Barcelona fits playing like this in every single meeting, but only for one of their four meeting was Xavi at the helm for Barcelona, and even in that match it was only his seventh match in charge.

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Barcelona

Since Xavi took over on November 6th, 2021, Barcelona has a +1.07 xGD; only Manchester City, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Inter, and PSG have been better in their respective domestic leagues, with La Liga being the clear second-most difficult league in Europe. Not only did they bring in Lewandowski, but but bringing in Franck Kessié, Andreas Christiansen, Jules Kounde, and Raphinha without having to let go of anyone of value has made Barcelona so much better.

Early showings in La Liga indicate that Barcelona is a much better team than the one that faced Bayern in December of 2021. The Spanish giants have a +2.00 xGD per 90 minutes and have created 13.5 xG in only five matches.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

If we look at UEFA coefficients, La Liga is a significantly better league than the Bundesliga. So essentially, by xGD taking into account for the strength of each league, these two clubs are rated almost dead even right now.

Bayern deserved to beat Inter, and they have +10.7 xGD in Germany. However, this defense is vulnerable because Upamecano and de Ligt are not an elite center back pairing, and who would know best about how to beat Bayern’s back line? Robert Lewandowski.

I only have Bayern Munich projected at +139, so I like the value on Barcelona +0.5 at +104 (BetRivers) and would play it down to -120.

The Pick: Barcelona +0.5 (+104)