Braga vs Union Berlin Prediction | UEFA Champions League Picks
Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Joao Moutinho.
Braga vs Union Berlin Odds
| Braga Odds | +110 |
| Union Berlin Odds | +225 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Braga will be hosting Union Berlin in a clash between the bottom two sides in Group C. Making it out of this group was no easy task for either of these sides as both Real Madrid and Napoli are the other two teams. If either club wants any chance of advancing to the knockout stage, then they need to pick up all three points.
Braga currently sit third in Group C with just three points and have lost each of their last two group stage matches, both being at the hands of Spanish giants Real Madrid. However, they have played well at home in these group stage matches despite losing 2-1 to both Napoli and Real Madrid.
Union Berlin’s season has been an all-around nightmare. They are bottom of this group with just one point, as well as being 17th in the Bundesliga just one season after finishing fourth. They have not won a match since August 26th and things do not seem to be getting better.
Let’s see how I expect this one to play out and how to bet Braga vs Union Berlin.
Braga
Braga still have a sliver of hope of advancing to the knockout stage of this year’s Champions League. They need to win this match and hope that Real Madrid beat Napoli. They will be putting all they have into this match to keep their dreams alive.
The Portuguese have excelled this season with their attacking play. They have the second highest xG tally in the Primeira Liga with 22.1 and the highest tally in the league at home with 12.1. They have not seen the same fortune come in these group stage matches, with their only three points coming against Union Berlin in the reverse fixture.
Their defensive play has been the area that has let them down in both the league and Champions League. They have conceded 18 goals and 16.8 xGA in the league in their 11 matches. These numbers are in the bottom half of the table and if they were even just a tad lower, they could potentially be top of the league.
Artur Jorge typically sets this side up in a 4-2-3-1 with their fullbacks playing in a very wide role. They are more comfortable in possession and like to build from the back with their two center backs, Fonte and Niakaté. The fullbacks going out wide allows for space in the middle where Moutinho, Zalazar and Horta can create chances. This is why their forward, Simon Banza, already has 10 goals to his name this season.
I expect Horta and Banza to give Union Berlin a real tough time, especially with the form that this Union Berlin side have been in all season long.
Union Berlin
Union Berlin have lost 13 of their last 15 matches in all competitions and have not won a match since August 26th. That should tell you all you need to know about how they have fared this season. It is truly remarkable that this team finished fourth in the Bundesliga last season, as they now sit 17th and have not looked like winning in quite some time.
Truly nothing has gone right for this side, they are 15th in xG(14.3), have conceded the second most goals in the league and seem to have no solution. They have tried 3-4-3, 3-5-2, 5-4-1, nothing seems to be working.
Yes, they have been underperforming their underlying metrics massively, so there are due for some positive regression in terms of the league. But it is hard to have any positive regression over just a six-match group stage, especially against some of the best sides in Europe.
Unless there is an absolute miracle, Union Berlin are pretty much already eliminated from advancing in this group, and I have seen nothing from them over the last couple months that warrants them winning this match. They look defeated and uninspired in every aspect of the game of football and their positions in the league and Champions League show that.
Braga vs Union Berlin
Prediction
Braga must win this match to keep their hopes of advancing to the knockout round alive. I think they will be able to do that, especially at home against this Union Berlin side that has struggled to create many chances all season.
They will give their all in this match as they know they must win, while Union Berlin have very little to play for except the chance that they can get into the Europa League with third place in this group, which seems unlikely.
This seems like a pretty straightforward play to me. I see value on Braga and I love the spot for them, therefore I will be taking Braga’s moneyline at +110.
Pick: Braga ML (+110 via DraftKings)
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