Brentford vs Sheffield United Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview

Saturday, Apr. 13

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Brentford Odds	-225
Sheffield United Odds	+550
Draw	+400
Over / Under	3.5  +130 / -163

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Brentford will be searching for a victory to help them avoid a late-season relegation scrap when they host last-place Sheffield United on Saturday.

Brentford are winless in their last nine in the league, a barren run that has seen the Bees drop to within four points of the relegation line. But things have at least improved marginally of late, with Thomas Frank's squad earning three consecutive draws.

Sheffield United's relegation fate is all but assured in a season in which they've only earned three league victories. But the Blades have also looked moderately better since Chris Wilder returned to the managerial reigns late last year, and have drawn three of their last four.

This is only the sides' second first-division meeting since the 1940s, with the Blades earning a 1-0 home win in the previous meeting in their second game with Wilder at the helm last December.

Here is my Premier League match preview for Brentford vs Sheffield United.

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As frustrating as the Bees' recent form has been, it comes with the caveat that they've faced a brutal stretch of the schedule.

Thomas Frank's side has faced every one of the league's current top-seven sides in that stretch, which means the six-game close to the season should feature fixtures that appear much more winnable.

Saturday's match is the first of three in a row against teams beneath the Bees in the table, although the only one at home. Brentford also welcome Fulham and visit Bournemouth — two more bottom-half teams — before closing the season at Newcastle United.

A bit against his managerial DNA, long-term injuries have influenced Frank to send his side out in a 3-5-2 in every game since mid-December, and maybe performances in the Bees' recent stretch of consecutive draws suggest they're getting more comfortable defending from it.

Yes, Brentford again conceded multiple goals in a 3-3 draw against Aston Villa the last time out, including a brace to the brilliant Ollie Watkins. But it was a third consecutive match in which the Bees allowed an opponent 1.5 expected goals or fewer, tied for their longest such run this season and the first since abandoning a back four.

On the other end of the pitch, Ivan Toney scored in four of his first five games back following his eight-month ban for betting-related activities, but then went scoreless in his last eight appearances — though he did score in a March friendly for England.

It's not often that a coach hired to try and avoid relegation keeps his job despite failing to avoid the drop. But the clear improvement from the Blades since Wilder's return to a role he previously held in the second tier suggests he may do just that.

Sheffield United only have three wins in all competitions under Wilder, but that's two more than they earned under Heckingbottom, and they've taken 0.65 points per match in the league since the change. That's not enough to survive relegation, but it's considerably higher from the miserable 0.36 mark under Heckingbottom.

And as we've discussed previously, the loan move for Ben Brereton Diaz in the winter window may be one of the best made by any club this season, even if it hasn't been enough alone to boost the Blades to survivor status.

He's far from the most goal-dangerous Premier League center forward, but his efficiency and ability to keep the ball help the rest of the Blades' attacking pieces fit. His new side has scored in eight of his nine previous appearances. And with Oliver McBurnie's deserved late equalizer for the Blades in a 2-2 home draw to Chelsea last Sunday, they've found the net multiple times in seven of those.

Wilder could return Brereton Diaz to a more natural role on the left flank Saturday and give striker Cameron Archer his first start since a return from a calf issue. Archer came on in the 87th minute against Chelsea, and his header during a goal-mouth scramble set up McBurnie's leveler.

I've been riding the Sheffield United team total trend with Brereton Diaz for two weeks now, and I can't come up with any reason to jump off it here at a price that leaps off the screen.

Brentford's metrics suggest they've been better defensively of late. Their habits suggest they're consistently inconsistent. And they've conceded multiple goals in more than half of their home games overall, as well as more than half against teams in the current bottom half of the table.

The Blades have outperformed their xG created during their high-scoring stretch to some degree, though not by an overwhelming degree. And at some point, they're going to be less efficient in front of goal.

But at +270 odds and an implied 27.0% probability, I'm taking that risk every time. And once again, the track record shows the Blades are more likely to score twice than they are to earn a point in this fixture, making this the better play than the +0.5 goal handicap.

Pick: Sheffield United Team Total Over 1.5 (+270 via DraftKings)