Brighton vs Man City Odds, Pick, Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
Marc Atkins/Getty. Pictured: Ruben Dias.
Brighton vs Man City Odds
| Brighton Odds | +500 |
| Man City Odds | -225 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +150 |
The pressure is on for Manchester City as the Cityzens are now Premier League title favorites following slip ups by Arsenal and Liverpool against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. Pep Guardiola's side has two games in hand on the two title challengers and enters Thursday's match at Brighton four points off the top of the table.
City will be expected to run the table, but the away trip to Brighton is one of their two toughest remaining fixtures based on pre-match projected odds. Manchester City advanced to yet another FA Cup final on Saturday with a cagey 1-0 victory against Chelsea, where the fatigue of a long season seemed evident in City's play.
It's a fifth match in 16 days in all competitions for City, who face a Brighton team playing their second match in the same time frame.
Here is my Brighton vs Man City pick and prediction in my latest Premier League match preview.
Brighton
Brighton's attack has just about fallen off a cliff in the last month from a metrics perspective. The Seagulls scored a goal at Burnley in their last league match, but only because of a poor goalkeeper error on a back pass that had nothing to do with Brighton attackers. Brighton have failed to score multiple goals in a match in any of their last 10 contests. Not since a 5-0 drubbing of 10-man Sheffield United on Feb. 18 has Roberto De Zerbi's side scored multiple times in a match.
There's been some poor finishing variance — Brighton have just five total goals from 9.1 xG in those 10 games — but De Zerbi's side is also producing just 0.91 xG per match in that not insignificant sample. The problem extends beyond the 10-match stretch as well. Since 2024 began, Brighton are 15th in xG per 90 at 1.3 per 90. The defense remains above average as an overall unit, but no longer are Brighton a dynamic attacking team that consistently creates chances against good defenses.
In two recent matches against Liverpool and Arsenal, the Seagulls totaled one expected goal and one actual goal — a second minute Danny Welbeck strike from the edge of the penalty area at Anfield in an eventual 2-1 loss.
The Seagulls presented challenges to the top sides under De Zerbi because of their ability to bait a press, play through it and then immediately strike in transition once playing through a more aggressive top level defense. Injuries to Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March have hurt their attacking output and they don't have a regular attacking player producing more than 0.4 NPxG per 90.
Man City
Manchester City's caution out of possession under Guardiola should turn this into a grinder of a game. City are pressing considerably less this season in an attempt to be more defensively solid in transition. There are certainly more holes in the City defense this season when compared to last, but Brighton lack the dynamic playmakers to exploit City in this way.
Erling Haaland has also been ruled out for the Cityzens, as Guardiola aims to have their top striker back for the weekend. Julian Alvarez is a perfectly capable deputy, but there's a gulf in production between City's two strikers. Haaland averages 0.81 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played. Alvarez is at 0.39 this season. That's nearly a half goal lost from City's top line projection.
Haaland's absence puts more onus on Phil Foden to get shots and goals, which is a role he's much better at than when he's asked to deputize Kevin De Bruyne in the more primary creator role. One major key for Manchester City is the return of both John Stones and Kyle Walker to help stabilize the defense. Those two players, plus Rodri, are the key cogs in City's transition defensive structure. Often times in the Champions League second leg against Real Madrid, Manuel Akanji was the unmarked player in build up for City. Stones is much better in that role and that should serve as a boost in build-up success.
Walker's pace on the right side acts in a sweeper/stopper role for City, consistently cleaning up for mistakes and holes in the transition defense otherwise.
Brighton vs Man City
Betting Pick & Prediction
The absence of Haaland for Manchester City combined with the short turnaround and a second consecutive away match (from a travel perspective) all make this a really difficult spot for the Cityzens. Brighton's recent form would suggest that they're not going to pose a huge threat to Manchester City's defense, but De Zerbi's sides have consistently made it difficult on Guardiola in past meetings.
Even the first matchup in Manchester featured just 1.6 expected goals and saw Guardiola show a ton of respect for De Zerbi by sitting off and not pressing Brighton once City took the lead early. I'd bet the under 3 up to -110.
Pick: Under 3 (+105)
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