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Bundesliga Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our Best Bets, Featuring Gladbach vs. Mainz

Bundesliga Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our Best Bets, Featuring Gladbach vs. Mainz article feature image
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Christian Verheyen/Borussia Mönchengladbach via Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Mönchengladbach goalkeeper Yann Sommer.

Borussia Mönchengladbach goalkeeper Yann Sommer made Bundesliga history in the Bundesliga last Saturday, finishing with a record 19 saves in the club’s 1-1 draw with Bayern Munch.

Yet again, the Foals got a result in this matchup for the fifth time in the last six meetings despite a dominant performance from the Bavarians when it came to shots and expected goals.

That was the highlight match of fourth week of play in the Bundesliga. This week’s card features the top two teams in the table facing off when Bayern Munich visits Union Berlin.

Borussia Dortmund and Hoffenheim play each another in a vital top-five clash on Friday, while Gladbach hosts Mainz after their thrilling draw. Finally, Augsburg welcomes Hertha Berlin to town for a relegation six pointer.

After a 3-0 sweep of last week’s best bets, the record in this column is sitting at +4.25 units for the season.

That said, here are my three best bets for the latest Bundesliga card:

Our Bundesliga Best Bets

Bochum vs. Werder Bremen

Bochum Odds +180
Bremen Odds +140
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +125)
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Werder Bremen has one of the more wild starts to the season with 10 goals for and 10 goals against in the first four matches. The most notable was the three-goal comeback at Borussia Dortmund, but it also suffered a 4-3 loss at Eintracht Frankfurt last time out and played to a 2-2 draw with Wolfsburg in its opening match.

Bremen had the best defensive underlying numbers in the second division last season and that has mostly continued to the top flight in terms of chances allowed. The score lines of its games suggest it has been extremely open at the back. However, the underlying numbers don’t really match up.

When you look across the board, Bremen actually produces and allows fewer shots per 90 minutes than the average team. The average shot distance and quality also suggest the goals aren’t going to continue in its matches.

Their opponent in this match is relegation favorite Bochum, which has struggled mightily to produce chances at this point in the year. It’s a great get right spot for the Bremen defense and Bochum’s defense fared much better at home last season as well.

By The Numbers

  • 16th — Werder Bremen has the third longest average shot distance in the Bundesliga.
  • 7th — Bremen’s defense hasn’t allowed high-quality chances either, as it ranks seventh in average shot quality conceded.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-135 or better)

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Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig

Frankfurt Odds +245
Leipzig Odds +100
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +130)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

RB Leipzig picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Wolfsburg. Now, it has a tricky road trip to Eintracht Frankfurt in the biggest matchup of the weekend in the German top flight.

Leipzig totally dominated both matches between the clubs last season, out creating Frankfurt by a 3.9-0.7 margin. Frankfurt managed to pull out two draws from that on a last-second equalizer in the first meeting and a 0-0 miracle clean sheet in the second contest.

Frankfurt ended last season with a whimper domestically and the early season results have not been encouraging either. In three games against Hertha, Köln and Werder Bremen, it has an even xGDiff and was also totally pasted in an opening defeat to Bayern Munich.

The loss of Filip Kostic is a huge one for the German side, as he was the primary chance creator and leading crosser into the box. The defense also has not stopped conceding big scoring chances. It was fourth worst last season and still look uninspiring defensively with the third lowest average shot distance allowed this season.

Only Schalke and Hertha Berlin are worse, and both are relegation-level teams at the moment. I like Leipzig at -110 moneyline odds or better to win this match on the road.

By The Numbers

  • 18 — Frankfurt has completed the second fewest passes into the penalty area. Last season, the club was in the top half in the advanced metric.
  • 0.08 — Leipzig has allowed the fourth-best shot quality allowed i(xG per shot conceded) in the Bundesliga this season.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Leipzig ML (-110 or better)

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Gladbach vs. Mainz

Gladbach Odds +115
Mainz Odds +205
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +125)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

As much success as Gladbach has had against Bayern Munich in the last few seasons, fading the club the match after has also been a successful endeavor. The Foals lost both games to Bayer Leverkusen and conceded four goals in each match immediately after their battle with the Bavarians last season.

And the third match was a 2-1 home win against Bochum, in which the Foals failed to cover the spread and were mediocre in performance.

Mainz suffered a 3-0 loss to Leverkusen last week, but most of the goals were quite fluky. As a team, Mainz has conceded the third fewest passes into their own penalty area and allowed 3.1 xGA in four matches.

The side takes away set-piece opportunities and chances as well, which is one area Gladbach has excelled offensively this season.

My projections make Mainz marginally better, so if you include Gladbach’s home-field advantage, it doesn’t get to you the current spread of Gladbach as an +115 moneyline favorite.

By The Numbers

  • 1st — Mainz allowed the fewest big scoring chances in the Bundesliga last season and has had an excellent start to this new year on the defensive front.
  • +3.3 — Sommer saved this number of post-shot xG in the draw with Bayern last week. He’s now atop the shot-stopping leaderboards, but hasn’t been close to that the last two full seasons. 

Dabbundo’s Pick: Mainz +0.25 (-110)

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