Champions League Betting Odds & Projections | Round of 16 Best Bets, Including Porto vs Inter

Champions League Betting Odds & Projections | Round of 16 Best Bets, Including Porto vs Inter article feature image

Mattia Ozbot/Getty. Pictured Lautaro Martinez.

It's time for the second leg of the round of 16 in the Champions League, with two of the final four ties still up grabs.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the latest set of contests with their best bets on the slate, including Porto vs Inter Milan and Real Madrid vs Liverpool.

The pair, part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures, delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Last updated: Mar. 7

Porto vs Inter

Porto Odds+160
Inter Odds+162
Over/Under2.5 (+100 / -120)
Day | TimeTuesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: The first match of this fixture ended 1-0 and I see no reason to avoid backing an under here again. Porto were dealing with some injuries in the first leg, but they didn’t sit all that deep and played a little more of a mid-block with their average defensive line at 45 yards from the goal.

The match did change after Otavio got the red card in the 78th minute as 10 of Inter’s 18 shots came in the final 12 minutes of the match. 

This game script changes now for Inter, who are likely going to sit deep and try to protect their one-goal lead. They are an outstanding defensive team in Italy, allowing just 0.87 npxG per 90 minutes in Serie A, and they have only conceded eight big scoring chances on the season.

Inter will be defending with a lead and their formation is already set up well to do so. They typically play out of a 3-5-2, which allows them to play five at the back to avoid Porto creating numerical advantages. Porto will be without Otavio due to red card suspension, so one of their most productive attackers is out.

I have 2.11 goals projected for this match, and I love the value on the under 2.5.

Pick Under 2.5 (-120)

Real Madrid vs Liverpool

Real Madrid Odds+125
Liverpool Odds+187
Over/Under2.5 (-188 / +150)
Day | TimeWednesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To WatchCBS
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Liverpool travel to Madrid with long shot odds to try and erase the damage from their 5-2 defeat at home in the opening leg of their round of 16 tie against Real Madrid last month.

The Reds showed in the first half that they can be the superior side as their press overwhelmed Real and the Reds took an early 2-0 lead. However, the wheels came off for Liverpool — Alisson made an uncharacteristic error to hand Real a goal to tie it just before half and then the Spanish champions scored off of a corner in the opening minutes of the second half.

Real Madrid have run absurdly well in the Champions League for more than a year now, and scoring five goals on nine shots and 1 xG in the first match was a continuation of that. They’ve been incredibly efficient in the biggest moments, but this situation is not all that different from their matchup with Chelsea in last year’s round of 16. Madrid had a two goal lead in the tie coming home and were totally outplayed for the first 70 minutes of the second leg.

Chelsea went up 3-0 and it wasn’t until Real had their backs against the wall and on the brink of elimination that they escaped defeat and won on aggregate.

Liverpool’s defensive flaws remain very real on set pieces and in transition, but they’ve also shown that they’re capable of scoring goals in bunches when they’re firing. The Reds just put up seven on Manchester United and caused similar problems pressing the Red Devils in build-up and forcing high turnovers.

Real Madrid’s defense has some real holes and thus this lead is not nearly as safe as it seems. I’m betting Liverpool draw no bet at anything plus-money as the underdog — they’re the better team in my ratings and are facing a big aggregate deficit.

I’m also sprinkling on Liverpool to advance at +1600.

Picks: Liverpool PK +120, Liverpool to advance +1600 (BetRivers)

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