Champions League Betting: Value Across the Board on Wednesday
Website en.psg.fr. Pictured: PSG celebrating
- Big favorites took care of business on Tuesday, and both Liverpool and PSG will look to do the same on Wednesday.
- There's value across the board in Champions League action, and I've broken down the betting market for every match.
The third round of group stage matches will wrap up in the Champions League Wednesday and there are a lot of games to be excited about including Barcelona-Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid-Dortmund and PSG-Napoli.
Before getting to every match, let’s take a quick look at the biggest line moves since opening.
Biggest Line Moves
- Leo Messi’s injury absence is mostly responsible for the movement toward Inter Milan, while PSV and Club Brugge are both attracting sharper action at home.
There are some really intriguing matchups for Wednesday and I’ve picked out three value plays while breaking down the betting market for every match.
Champions League Season Record: 4-3-1 (+0.90 units)
>> All odds and betting percentages as of Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time Champions League updates and track all your bets.
Tottenham at PSV (12:55 p.m. ET on TNT and Univision)
Moneylines: Tottenham (+115), PSV (+250), Draw (+260)
Total: 3 (u-125)
The betting market for this game is very similar to Young Boys-Valencia on Tuesday. The public is heavy on the road side, Tottenham, yet the odds have moved toward the home underdog, PSV.
Despite more than 70% of bets on Spurs, they’ve shifted from -105 to +115 since opening. Neither team has any points in the Group B yet, and Tottenham will certainly feel the pressure to get all three.
Tottenham are dealing with a couple injuries and the contrarian angle screams PSV +0.5 goals, but I believe Spurs will find a way to get the win in desperation.
Monaco at Club Brugge (12:55 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Monaco (+260), Brugge (+110), Draw (+265)
Total: 2.5 (o-130)
Both clubs are pointless in Group A and desperately need a win to stay in the hunt for the next round.
Monaco’s new manager Thierry Henry will oversee his first Champions League game after losing, 2-1, to Strasbourg in his Ligue 1 debut over the weekend.
Bettors don’t seem to have much faith in the Frenchman as the majority of tickets has come on in Club Brugge to get the home victory. Odds have also swung in Brugge’s direction since opening even though the initial line movement was on Monaco.
Schalke at Galatasaray (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Schalke (+187), Galatasaray (+166), Draw (+232)
Total: 2.5 (u-135)
Group D is there for the taking, and this game is essentially a toss-up in terms of the odds. The majority of bets is on Galatasaray, but I think the value is on the draw (+232) considering all three outcomes have around the same chance of happening.
Porto at Lokomotiv Moscow (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Porto (+100), Moscow (+330), Draw (+240)
Total: 2 (o-130)
Porto are the best team in Group D, and will have a big chance to prove it with a stern road test in Russia.
At +100 odds, the Portuguese side have a 50% chance of victory. There’s hardly been any line movement thus far, so bettors and oddsmakers are being patient.
I could definitely see Lokomotiv Moscow pulling off a win or draw, but I’ll be passing on this game considering I have bets on both Porto win the group and Lokomotiv to advance. Too much at stake for me to pile on.
Atletico Madrid at Dortmund (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Atletico (+180), Dortmund (+170), Draw (+235)
Total: 2.5 (u-125)
Atletico Madrid and Dortmund both take perfect records into their crucial Group A match, and odds imply another near coin flip.
Bettors have taken a side with Dortmund, but the market hasn’t felt like budging yet. Atletico Madrid may struggle to get their coveted 1-0 result, and I think both clubs would be happy with a point apiece. The contrarian angle also makes the draw appealing at +235 odds, and I think a bet at that price is worth it.
Inter Milan at Barcelona (3 p.m. ET on TNT and Univision)
Moneylines: Inter (+500), Barcelona (-175), Draw (+335)
Total: 3 (u-115)
Inter Milan catch a bit of a break as Leo Messi (arm) will miss the match due to injury. Barcelona, however, have been very strong without Messi in the lineup, winning 49 of 61 games without him since 2010.
Barcelona originally opened -295, but without Messi they’re now all the way down to -180. I’m one of the biggest Messi supporters out there, but that movement is a huge overreaction.
Martin Laurence goes in-depth with a great preview of this game that I agree with here:
Red Star Belgrade at Liverpool (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Red Star (+4000), Liverpool (-1685), Draw (+1355)
Total: 4 (u-112)
Red Star were walloped, 6-1, by PSG in their last group match but did manage to draw Napoli in the opener. Odds suggest that Red Star win this match about 2.5% of the time and draw 6.87%.
Liverpool haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders this season so a date with Red Star could be just what the doctor ordered. The spread, or goal-line, is Liverpool -3, so I don’t see much betting value anywhere.
Napoli at PSG (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Napoli (+570), PSG (-211), Draw (+385)
Total: 3 (o-135)
Even though public bettors are taking their chances on underdogs, Napoli, the line has moved in favor of PSG. I think we’ll see a multi-goal win by the home side to take over the group, so I’m going with PSG -1.5 (+120).
Most Lopsided Betting Percentages
- Tottenham are getting the most love by the public, followed by Galatasaray and Club Brugge. All three clubs are listed with plus-money odds to win.
- Galatasaray-Schalke Draw (+232)
- Dortmund-Atletico Draw (+235)
- PSG -1.5 (+120) vs. Napoli