Champions League Round of 16 Odds, Picks, Prediction: Chelsea vs. Lille Betting Preview (Feb. 22)
Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Romelu Lukaku.
- Chelsea is a huge favorite over Lille in the Champions League Round of 16 on Tuesday.
- The Blues have become an even bigger favorite over the last day, moving from -320 to -330, while Lille has gone from +950 to +1000.
- Get Avery Zimmerman's full Chelsea vs. Lille preview and pick below.
Chelsea vs. Lille Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / +105)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings, updated at 11:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
The second week of Champions League Round of 16 ties is upon us, and two of the fixtures will include Premier League teams.
On Tuesday, Chelsea will host Lille in a rematch of the 2019/20 group stage matchup which generated two excellent encounters.
The Blues are fresh off of a Club World Cup title and a last-gasp victory in the Premier League, while Les Dogues enter with a mixed bag of form behind them.
Should we expect this tie to reflect the odds, or will Lille be able to challenge Chelsea for a result?
Chelsea Relying on Excellent Defensive Record
Last year’s Champions League winners aren’t playing perfect soccer, but they are maintaining a near-flawless back line that is generating results for the Blues.
Chelsea has conceded just five goals in its last 10 across all competitions, and it hasn’t conceded over one xGA in a Premier League game since its January second draw with Liverpool. This is an impossible back line to break down, and it’s providing safety for a team that hasn’t been able to get it going in the opponent’s third.
In the PL games mentioned above, Chelsea generated over one xG themselves just two times, amassing 1.04 and 1.12 numbers against Tottenham and Crystal Palace respectively. It’s a somewhat worrying trend for Thomas Tuchel’s team, but his concerns will be eased by his reliable back line.
The Blues are still dealing with injuries to Reece James, Ben Chilwell and Mason Mount, while Cesar Azpilicueta and Callum Hudson-Odoi have fitness question marks ahead of the game.
It’s not ideal for a team that has played a lot and has travelled even more over the past few weeks, but they’ll have to make it work ahead of a crucial fixture.
Lille Looking to Continue First-Half Trend
It’s been an up-and-down season for Les Dogues, but their best moments this season have come in the Champions League.
Lille won its group stage with 11 points on three wins, two draws and a loss, but it currently sits in 11th place in Ligue 1. Its overall xG differential of 0.04 xG/game is actually worse than the 0.11 xG/game differential that it posted in the Champions League group stage.
Even though Les Dogues were handed a favorable group that consisted of RB Salzburg, Sevilla and Wolfsburg, those squads are stronger than the collective quality in Ligue 1, and Lille still out-performed itself in a tougher competition.
The good news for Lille is that it has actually done very well away from home comparatively to its home form. In both competitions, its away numbers are only marginally worse than its home numbers, allowing for a bit of hope that it can go into Stamford Bridge and find a result.
Another reason for optimism could come from the fact that only Angel Gomes is confirmed as dealing with an injury ahead of the fixture. This should be a team that has plenty of energy, and its extra day of rest (last played on Friday, Chelsea on Saturday) could be beneficial in furthering that.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Despite Chelsea’s daunting record at home, where it has lost just once across all competitions this season, I believe that there’s a bit of value to be had on Lille, who is getting a generous 1.5 goals against the spread.
Les Dogues have been competitive on the road this season, and particularly in the Champions League, where they found two wins in the group stage. In both of those games the result was fully deserving, and Les Dogues have held an xG advantage in each of its two prior road Ligue 1 games as well.
Additionally, a juiced under of 2.5 is appealing considering both sides are strong defensively and haven’t gone above that total in either of their two previous league games, nor have they in terms of xG.
Both spots offer value in my estimation, and while it’s hard to back Les Dogues to come back to France with an outright victory or even a draw, they’re being disrespected with this number.
Picks: Lille +1.5 (-110) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (+105)