Chelsea vs. West Ham EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea star Raheem Sterling is manhandled by Southampton winger Moussa Djenepo.
Chelsea vs. West Ham Odds
|West Ham Odds||+550|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-150 / +110)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Chelsea and West Ham United, which failed to earn points during midweek Premier League action, meet Saturday for their latest London derby at Stamford Bridge.
The Blues dropped all three points in a road defeat against Southampton, while the Hammers earned a deserved home point against Tottenham. Neither side has impressed early on, with Chelsea sitting 10th in the table and West Ham behind the host in 14th place.
Last season, the home team earned all three points in both meetings. The Hammers secured a 3-2 victory at the London Stadium before the Blues earned three points in a 1-0 win on their own soil.
Believe it or not, Chelsea arrives here as a negative regression candidate.
Through their first five games, the Blues have posted a minus-2 goal differential against a minus-5 big scoring chances differential. Manager Thomas Tuchel’s normally reliable defense has proven the luckier of his two units, conceding eight goals on 14 big scoring chances to date.
Those 14 big scoring chances against Chelsea put it at 18th in the metric’s table, ahead of only Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest.
That said, the Blues arrive at this fixture underperforming on the offensive side of things. Just in terms of big chances, the Blues have scored seven goals on 12 big scoring chances.
By The Numbers
- 7 — Number of big scoring chances Chelsea has conceded in its last two Premier League fixtures.
- 8th — The Blues’ ranking in xGDiff table this season.
West Ham United
After dropping all three points in three consecutive matches to open the season, West Ham appears to have turned a corner.
The Hammers have earned points in two matches in a row, including a 1-1 midweek draw against Tottenham. They won the match on xG (1.24-0.63) and big scoring chances via a 2-0 advantage, per fotmob.com.
That said, West Ham remains a negative regression candidate based on its big scoring chances record. Entering this game, manager David Moyes’s side owns a minus-3 goal differential against a plus-6 big chances differential.
A large chunk of that over-performance can be attributed to the Hammers’ defense, which has conceded only five goals on 10 big scoring chances.
By The Numbers
- -6.7 — The road xGDiff for West Ham in its last 21 road EPL fixtures.
- T-19th — Current ranking for the Hammers in big scoring chances.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’ll likely hate myself come Saturday, but I’m going all in on Chelsea in a buy-low spot in this meeting.
Last season, West Ham played horrific football against Big Six clubs, posting an 0-6-0 (W-L-D) record in those matches. Just in those contests, the Hammers accumulated a -1.83 expected goal differential per 90 minutes and allowed 2.42 xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
In fact, all but one of those six teams created more than two xG while limiting West Ham to less than one xG in five of those six contests. Plus, just against sides that stayed up after last season, it conceded 1.73 xGA per 90 minutes away from home.
Although I hate having to lay goals with a Chelsea defense that has looked awful to start, this attack should have its way with the West Ham defense.
The Pick: Chelsea -1 (-125)