Crystal Palace vs Man United Picks, Predictions | Premier League Match Preview
Ryan Pierse/Getty. Pictured: Jeffrey Schlupp.
Crystal Palace vs Man United Picks
| Crystal Palace Odds | +115 |
| Man United Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +150 |
Man United have four matches left in the Premier League season and they're now lined as an underdog at Crystal Palace on Monday Night Football. The Red Devils dropped into eighth place over the weekend after wins by Chelsea and Newcastle and United are in real danger of missing out on Europe entirely next season unless they're able to find some results away from home these next few weeks.
It's hard to imagine that Crystal Palace have ever been lined as a favorite against Manchester United in the history of either club. The Eagles have a consistently improving health situation as Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are both expected to start and Marc Guehi is more likely than not to make his return from injury for this match.
Compare that with United's injury crisis at center back and the Eagles come into this match receiving a lot of market respect.
Here is my Crystal Palace vs Man United prediction.
Crystal Palace
Oliver Glasner's first match in charge was a 3-0 victory against 10-man Burnley on Feb. 24. The Eagles have now played 10 league matches with Glasner in charge and the underlying process stats have taken a notable leap. The Eagles have a +0.25 xG difference per 90 minutes, and even if you take out the extra man minutes they are +0.1 per 90. Palace absolutely pass the eye test since Olise and Eze have returned from injury. Their 1-0 defeat at Anfield with 2.0 xG created and their dominant victory against Newcastle at home show the definite progress that they have made.
The Eagles settled for an away draw at Fulham last weekend in the Premier League and struggled to consistently create in that match, but Eze was unavailable. It's hard to understate just how important Eze and Olise are in creating chances for this Palace side. The two midfielders have 22 combined goal contributions and have helped produce in the breakout goalscoring form of Jean-Phillipe Mateta.
Palace have created 1.58 xG per 90 in all 11-on-11 Glasner minutes, which is roughly the same amount as Man United have produced in the same time frame. The ket difference and advantage in this match for Palace is the defense, which remains around league average while United's defense has continued a slide toward a true bottom 3-5 unit in the league.
Man United
Harry Maguire picked up an injury and has been ruled out for this match, which leaves United in full desperation mode at center back. Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane were the first choice paring, and they've both been out for a while now. First backup options Maguire and Victor Lindelof are out. Jonny Evans is listed as questionable to feature and youngster Willy Kambwala is also now out through injury. Casemiro will have to start at center back and if Evans can't go, the Red Devils will need to push further into the academy to find players to fill that role.
With Luke Shaw also still out, the Red Devils plan to build up in possession really takes a hit. Casemiro himself has been prone to a ton of mistakes in possession all year long, and his ability to cover space without committing a ton of fouls has been one of United's biggest issues defensively all season. The likely midfield pairing of Kobbie Mainoo and Christian Eriksen don't offer a ton of defensive value, as much as their skills complement one another well in actual possession.
In the last 810 minutes of PL soccer (since Feb. 24), no defense in the entire league has conceded more xGA per match than Manchester United's 2.22. The Red Devils have also allowed the second-most shots in the league and are a bottom five set piece defense. If you follow me in the Action Network app or read my commentary weekly, then you know I've consistently bet against United's defense and will do so yet again on Monday.
Crystal Palace vs Man United
Prediction
Crystal Palace are a rightful favorite in this match and with some heavier weighting for recent form, I could make Palace as big as a -102 favorite on Monday. The Red Devils still have plenty of attacking ability in transition and the status of Bruno Fernandes is incredibly key toward United having a top 6-7 level attacking side. The Red Devils are at their best playing on the break, but even when scoring goals this season United's defense have been a true bottom five unit that the market has yet to properly adjust for.
I'm laddering Palace team totals as this is tough away spot for a United team that is searching for the end of the season and preparing to go all in for the FA Cup final at the end of the month.
Picks: Crystal Palace TT o1.5 (-120), TT o2.5 (+250), TT o3.5 (+900)
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