Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Odds & Prediction: The Team Total to Bet
Mike Hewitt/Getty. Pictured: Arsenal and Crystal Palace players.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +210 |
| Newcastle Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Crystal Palace look to post their first three-match winning streak of the season on Wednesday when they host a Newcastle United side still contending for potential European places.
Palace romped to a 5-2 home win over West Ham United on Sunday on the strength of four first-half goals and an eventual brace for Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Newcastle were also dominant in their last outing, a 4-0 home win over Tottenham two weekends ago, with Alexander Isak pouncing for a brace.
Read on for my Crystal Palace vs Newcastle prediction.
Crystal Palace
As discussed last week, Palace have been a much better team when their first-choice wingers Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise are both healthy.
Sunday's win marked only the sixth game in which both flank men were in the Eagles' first XI, and the fourth victory out of those six games. Each player also scored during the first-half onslaught that led to manager Oliver Glasner's third league win since taking charge in late February.
The last two wins have ensured for all practical purposes that the Eagles won't have to worry about relegation this season, and another victory Wednesday would make that a mathematical guarantee.
But for Palace fans, what should be even more encouraging is that the underlying numbers have matched the outcome of the most recent performances. For a second consecutive match, the Eagles created more than 2.0 expected goals, something they never did this season under previous manager Roy Hodgson, even during stretches when those two wingers were available.
Newcastle
Newcastle still have plenty to play for with six matches remaining, entering the mid-week slate tied in sixth place ahead of Manchester United on goal difference.
The Magpies' fate isn't entirely in their own hands, since United would have an automatic UEFA Europa League berth if they win their FA Cup final against Manchester City. And it's too late in the season to consider making up the gap on fifth-place Tottenham a realistic goal.
Either way, the Magpies have been a far better team since the start of 2024 once their elimination from the UEFA Champions League allowed manager Eddie Howe's side to regroup and get healthy. They've suffered only two defeats in the last 11 league games, and in their four-match unbeaten run they played to a +5.5 expected-goal difference.
Isak has been an enormous part of that increased statistical dominance. The Swedish international has five goals and 4.9 xG in those contests while taking his season total to 17 goals, which sees him tied for fifth with Mo Salah on the Premier League scoring table.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Prediction
But for all Newcastle's improvement, they still remain a spotty team when they hit the road.
Yes, they've won three times as the away side in 2024 against only once this season before the calendar turned. But the xG data suggest that's more about variance than material improvement. And what they do most consistently as an away side is concede goals — having allowed two or more in 10 of their 15 away league fixtures, and 4 of 8 times against bottom-half opposition.
Meanwhile, Palace have scored 11 goals in their first four home games under Oliver Glasner, and have created above 2.0 xG in three of those four games.
So I'm on the hosts scoring at last two goals here at +120 odds and an implied 45.5% probability. I like that a little more here than a draw-no-bet wager on Palace at a similar price because it gives you the chance to cash on a 2-2 draw or a high-scoring defeat, both reasonable possibilities in any games involving the Magpies.
Pick: Crystal Palace total over 1.5 goals (+120 via Caesars)
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