Well, we made it to the World Cup quarterfinals.
Less than a month ago, we had 48 teams and 104 games ahead of us with everything to gain. It's hard to believe we’re down to just eight teams and eight games — though it’s that eighth game that may present some surprising betting value.
Unlike most American contests, where each knockout loser is eliminated until a champion is crowned, the World Cup features a third-place match. That feels like a meaningless consolation prize, but goals and stats from that match count, giving bettors a little edge to exploit.
Additionally, the lower stakes of that third-place match often lead to a more open, free-flowing, higher-scoring match. Since 1980, third-place matches average just over 3.9 goals per match, with 3+ goals in all but one match, and both teams finding the scoreboard in eight of the 11 matches.
Winning a quarterfinal guarantees a team two more matches, so with tight races for top goal scorer and other markets, there’s margin to be had — especially if there’s a team you like in the World Cup quarterfinals.
I like England, and I’ve got a trio of ways to invest in Three Lions futures.
Harry Kane Top Goal Scorer (+850, FanDuel)
If England beats Norway, that means three games remaining for Harry Kane and the boys.
Can England win that one? The Three Lions are moderate favorites to advance, priced at around 70%, which feels a touch short.
Norway’s biggest advantage is typically its two stars, goal-scoring phenom Erling Haaland and assist man Martin Odegaard. But against England, those stars are well matched by Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, and it’s hard to argue England isn’t better pretty much across the boards from there — its midfield, its defense, depth, coaching, pick your poison.
Norway was outplayed by Brazil, quite so by advanced metrics like expected goals, and the English players will be more than familiar with Haaland and Odegaard from their time defending them in the Premier League.
England can be a frustrating watch, but the moments of brilliance are there. Likewise, Thomas Tuchel hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory with his squad selection, but some of his tactical moves and in-game adjustments have been just what England needed.
Norway has yet to keep a clean sheet at the World Cup, so England should score, maybe a few times, and that probably means Kane finding the scoring sheet. He’s scored in all but one match and would be the clear Golden Boot winner in most tournaments.
Of course, most tournaments don’t feature Messi, Mbappe, and Haaland racking up goals at this rate. Kane is a goal or two behind all three, but can effectively knock Haaland out of the mix with a head-to-head victory since Haaland can’t score goals while eliminated.
If Kane has his third brace, that could put him tied for the lead — and, again, it also guarantees at least two more matches.
The race is still open for Kane to make a push to take home top goal-scoring honors at +850, especially if you think France and/or Argentina are a touch overrated in the market and vulnerable to lose as early as their next match.
England Champion + Harry Kane Top Scorer (theScore, +1800)
You can make a pretty easy case that England has the best roster on its half of the bracket, and now that Brazil has been upset, the path is sweet. A potential semifinal looks plenty winnable, even if it's against an Argentina side that struggled mightily with both Cape Verde and Egypt.
For my money, Spain and France are the two best teams and the most likely World Cup champions at this point, but they’re both on opposite sides of the bracket. England will likely need to beat one of those two in the final as an underdog, but the Three Lions have the star talent and depth to compete with either side.
And as great as France has looked so far, I’m not sold on this French side being correctly priced as a serious favorite to make the final. The win against Paraguay was underwhelming, and the team has yet to be truly pushed out of possession. Morocco, with all its ties and history, has a real shot at upsetting the French, too.
I’d price England as the second-most likely to make the semifinals, just behind Spain, and though Spain is unbelievable in its possession and defense, it plays a style that leads to low-scoring matches, which sets up an easy script for a smash-and-grab upset.
Is the World Cup finally coming home for England?
If it does, it’ll almost certainly be because Harry Kane played a huge part. I like betting on an England title with Kane as the top scorer (+1800, the Score) as a correlated parlay on the Three Lions winning with Kane leading the way, and possibly even stifling Haaland, Messi, and Mbappe along the way.
Exact Outcome: England Over Spain in Finals (+1400, DraftKings)
We’re looking for long shots, so here’s one more that fits the bill.
I’m specifically looking to fade the overpriced France and Argentina sides, and this is a direct way to do that — by betting on the two other favorites to get to the finals, then grabbing the underdog there.
England’s history of coming up short is well documented, but if you can ignore that history for a minute – and remember that Kane seems good enough to will his team past the mental block all on his own – this roster can stand up with any.
World Cup finals are often stodgy and careful, and that’s how Spain prefers it anyway. We might be looking at 1–0 or 2–0, and that’s a scoreline where England could steal a match, even if not the better overall team.
Bonus Bet: Norway Team Goals Escalator
If you think this is all nonsense and are ready to fade England right away, perhaps you should invest in Norway instead.
The Scandinavians already have 12 goals, with at least two in every competitive match (they scored just one when resting key players against France), so if Norway beats England and still has three games to play, that could mean six-to-eight more goals to come.
Haaland is fit to score in any match, and a brace or hat trick is always in play.
I’m not interested in a median outcome for Norway, like over 13.5 goals (-105, theScore), or Haaland 10+ goals (+500, FanDuel), or even in leading in goals. But if Norway upsets England, it’ll be a sizable underdog in what’s likely the higher-scoring semifinal – and if they lose that one, that could actually be better for a Norway goals escalator since it sends them to the higher-scoring, wide open third-place match.
You have to figure Norway would play that much like Haaland often does, in full on attack mode, and that could mean plenty of goals.
Norway has tallied 12 goals thus far and is averaging 2.75 goals per competitive match. If Norway beats England and thus has three games remaining, that could mean eight goals still on the table.
I like building a Norway goals escalator: 17+ goals at +430, 18+ at +750, 19+ at +1500, and 20+ at +2700, all at FanDuel. We’ll need a couple goals and a win over England, then hope for a scoring loss and a wild third-place match with goals all over the place. But hey, at least we’d have a reason to watch that one.
I like this even with the England bets since we get some long-shot outs either way, but you can pick your poison if you strongly prefer a side.
