Thursday Euro 2020 Betting Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Bets for Netherlands vs. Austria, More (June 17)

Thursday Euro 2020 Betting Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Bets for Netherlands vs. Austria, More (June 17) article feature image
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Photo by ANP Sport via Getty Images. Pictured: Members of the Dutch national team celebrate a goal.

  • Euro 2020 rolls on Thursday with three matches in group play, starting with Ukraine vs. North Macedonia.
  • Four soccer analysts. Four different best bets. Matthew Trebby, Jeremy Pond, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo unveil their top picks on Thursday's Euro 2020 slate.
  • Check out how they're playing the games, including two picks from the Netherlands vs. Austria match.

There is another intriguing set of matches on the Euro 2020 card Thursday, with tournament favorite Belgium part of the busy lineup.

There are three games on the slate, including: Ukraine vs. North Macedonia (Group C); Denmark vs. Belgium (Group B); and, the nightcap on the schedule featuring the Netherlands squaring off against Austria in a Group C showdown.

Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.

As for these latest contests, handicappers Matthew Trebby, Jeremy PondBJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo have delivered their best bets covering three matches.

That said, let’s take a look at their favorite picks on the card.

Thursday’s Best Bets

ANALYST PICK | ODDS BEST BOOK
Matthew Trebby Ukraine Over 1.5 Goals (-122) DraftKings
Jeremy Pond Belgium ML (+104) DraftKings
BJ Cunningham Austria +1 (-113) DraftKings
Anthony Dabbundo Netherlands vs. Austria: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-115) DraftKings

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon.


Matthew Trebby: Ukraine Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-122) vs. North Macedonia

North Macedonia proved to be not very good in their opening match against Austria. The first-time participants in this competition were extremely fortunate to score in their opening fixture but registered just 0.62 expected goals. Most of that total came on the goal, which was courtesy of a series of unfortunate events in the Austrian defense.

Ukraine, meanwhile, showed it has plenty of technical quality by coming back from a two-goal deficit against the Netherlands, only to concede the winner in the 85th minute. Ukraine’s left-footed trio of Andriy Yarmolenko, Ruslan Malinovsky and Oleksandr Zinchenko all were fantastic against the Dutch. I imagine they’ll be much better when they have more of the ball against an inferior opponent.

With a legitimate finisher in attack in Roman Yaremchuk, I like Ukraine’s chances of getting an important three points here. Most importantly, I like them to score twice. Ukraine’s team Over 1.5 goals is -122 at DraftKings, and I see them comfortably hitting that in a convincing performance against a team that’s lucky to be in this tournament.

Jeremy Pond: Belgium ML (+104) vs. Denmark

There is no point in giving some drawn-out, long-winded explanation as to why I’ve landed on this latest selection.

You have one nation, who’s among the top picks to win the title, sitting No. 1 in the latest FIFA world rankings. The other country enters this game following a disappointing, yet completely understandable, loss to lowly Finland in its Group B debut.

So, making Belgium my top pick as it gets ready to face Denmark wasn’t the hardest decision. Manager Roberto Martinez and the Belgians were brilliant in their 3-0 shutout over Russia in their first contest. Romelu Lukaku bagged a brace for the victors, who held the edge in expected goals by a 1.7-0.3 margin.

In contrast, Denmark endured a gutting 1-0 defeat against Finland in a battle where star midfielder Christian Eriksen suffered a medical emergency that led to the match being delayed, then restarted, after the Danes opted to play on minus their leader. Denmark simply couldn’t find an equalizer despite racking up a 1.9-0.4 xG advantage and possessing the ball 70 percent of the game.

Bottom line, Belgium has too much firepower in its arsenal for even Denmark’s capable defense to withstand the entire confrontation. My projections have Belgium north of -105 on the three-way moneyline, so I think we’re being dealt a steal getting +104 via DraftKings as of publication.

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BJ Cunningham: Austria +1 (-113) vs. Netherlands

The Netherlands looked fantastic and quite frankly domined about 86 minutes of their game against Ukraine, but this match is going to be much more difficult and it’s quite honestly going to be a fascinating battle in the midfield.

DeBoer went with a 3-5-2 against Ukraine mainly because I think he wanted to have as many wide players as possible to beat the opponent from the perimeter, which was successful.

However, I don’t know if that’s going to work here, because Austria’s midfield combination of Sabitzer, Laimer, and Schalger showed just how good they are as a group with Sabitzer being the more attacking creative midfielder and Schlager and Laimer being more of the defensive ball winners.

Then of course Alaba was the best player on the field in the North Macedonia match, so it’s going to be much more difficult for Netherlands to control the midfield with De Jong, De Roon, and Wijnaldum like they did against Ukraine.

Austria also came out in a 3-5-1-1 formation, which isn’t a surprise because Austria tends to change up their formations a lot, but it will be interesting to see how defensive they come out because one point in this match and one point against Ukraine in their final group stage match would be good enough for second place in this group. 

I think Austria is going to come out in a very defensive formation and try to control the pace of this game in the midfield and not allow the Dutch to turn this into an open end to end type of game like they want to play.

So I actually like the Austrians to get a point on the road in Amsterdam, so I’m going to take their spread of +1 at -118 odds as my top selection.

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Anthony Dabbundo: Netherlands vs. Austria: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-115)

The Netherlands and Ukraine opening group stage match provided the most open, attacking play and late drama of any thus far in Euro 2020. Both the Netherlands and Austria were in the top four in successful pressure numbers and pressing success rate in their respective first matches.

The Dutch established a clear way of breaking through Ukraine’s midfield with Daley Blind passing to Frenkie de Jong who then found Memphis Depay to run at the opponents’ backline. That line of ball progression will still be open, and the Austrian backline will struggle to deal with Depay running at them in space once the Dutch break through the Austrian pressing.

But the Austrians also will be able to exploit some weaknesses in this Dutch defense that Ukraine wasn’t quite able to until the final 15 minutes. Plenty of Ukraine attacks found space to operate and Dutch defensive midfielder Martin de Roon was often left defending on an island in front of the back three.

Austria turned in one of the best attacking performances of the opening round with 14 completed passes into the penalty area, 1.4 expected goals and seven passes into the area alone from Marcel Sabitzer. They have more midfield and attacking talent than Ukraine and should be able to get on the board here.

Simply put, both sides will be willing to press and play an open style of attacking play, and that should lead to both teams scoring in this high-octane matchup.

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