Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Everton vs. Norwich City Preview (Sept. 25)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Everton vs. Norwich City Preview (Sept. 25) article feature image
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Tony McArdle – Everton FC/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Digne

Everton vs. Norwich City Odds

Everton Odds -165
Norwich City Odds +500
Draw +285
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Everton and Norwich meet on Merseyside Saturday with each carrying the sting of a midweek Carabao Cup defeat into their Premier League encounter.

Norwich fell 3-0 at Liverpool at home in Tuesday’s third-round tie, extending a losing streak to four matches in all competitions.

Everton crashed out to League Championship opponents Queens Park Rangers on penalties following a 2-2 draw at Loftus Road.

The Toffees won the last meeting between these teams, 2-0 at Carrow Road in June of 2020, but the Canaries earned a 1-0 win in their last trip to Goodison Park in November of 2019.

Everton’s Injury Issues Generating Concern

After a rampaging start to life under manager Rafa Benitez, the Toffees have settled back to Earth in their last two matches, including a 3-0 defeat to Aston Villa their last time out in the league.

Not much separated the sides before Matty Cash’s first goal in a Villa shirt in the 66th minute. But from there it was all Villains, and even though the score might have flattered the hosts, the result did not.

Everton have kept only one clean sheet in seven matches in all competitions, coming in their 2-0 away win at Brighton and Hove Albion on the Premier League’s second weekend.

Saturday would be a useful occasion to add a second, since Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison remain out to injury.

In better news for the Blues, fullback Lucas Digne is available after a minor calf issue saw him depart Tuesday’s fixture before full time. And goalkeeper Jordan Pickford is set two return after two matches out with a shoulder injury.

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When Will Norwich City Get Off Winless Mark?

The Canaries arrive at Goodison Park seeking their first points of the Premier League season and a first win in 15 games in total at this level dating back to a 2019-2020 campaign that ended in relegation.

One of the league’s most substantially overhauled rosters just hasn’t created many chances in early life after Emiliano Buendia’s transfer to Aston Villa and loanee Oliver Skipp’s return to Tottenham Hotspur.

It’s particularly dire away from home, where the Canaries have been outscored 6-0 and out-created in expected goals (xG) 5.7 to 0.7, per FBref.com.

At home in their Carabao Cup defeat, the Canaries also created little save for Christos Tzolis’ 42nd-minute penalty, stopped by Liverpool ‘keeper Caoihmin Kelleher.

Midfielder Milot Raschia’s availability will be a matchday decision after an adductor injury held him out of the last two days of training. Todd Cantwell is still out for personal reasons.

Betting Analysis & Picks

The total has gone over 2.5 goals in 12 of these teams’ combined 14 matches in all competitions this campaign, but I see several reasons to play it under on Saturday.

There’s Everton’s injury situation. While Calvert-Lewin’s absence gets as much attention, Richarlison is the real blow as the Toffees’ most consistent offensive creator.

There’s the fact teams that like to play on the break — as Everton are becoming under Benitez — can sometimes struggle to create a volume of chances against more conservative opponents.

And there’s Norwich’s uninspiring away attacking form to date.

If the visitors do find a goal, they’re likely to defend it for dear life. Everton might also be less adventurous in trying to build on a 1-0 lead, given their own absences and Norwich’s attacking struggles.

Both teams have conceded more goals than their opponents’ xG totals in the Premier League. Everton have also outscored their own xG. It’s time for a regression.

That’s why I’m playing the total under 2.5 goals at a 51.2% implied probability.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105)

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