Everton vs. Nottingham Forest Updated Betting Preview: Our Latest Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions & Expert Tips
Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Everton standout Amadou Onana.
- Fresh off its first win, Nottingham Forest heads to Goodison Park on Saturday to face Everton in a Premier League showdown.
- Analyst Ian Quillen explains below why he has found betting value on the total.
- Check out why he expects offensive fireworks ahead of this intriguing affair.
Everton vs. Forest Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -130)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Nottingham Forest is the promoted side, but it’s Everton looking for its first points of the Premier League season Saturday at Goodison Park.
The Toffees have lost consecutive matches by a single goal via their 1-0 home defeat to Chelsea and 2-1 road setback at Aston Villa.
After starting its return to the EPL with a 2-0 loss to Newcastle United, Forest earned its first Premier League victory since 1999 with a 1-0 home triumph over West Ham United.
That was also the year of these teams’ last meeting, which Forest won via a 1-0 shutout at Goodison in a January fixture.
The Toffees have been competitive in both matches of a challenging start to the schedule.
However, they still haven’t acquired an obvious source of goal scoring to make up for the loss of injured striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and ineffectiveness of other options.
Their only goal of the season, which was a late tally against Villa, was credited as an own goal to former Everton fullback Lucas Digne.
On the other hand, Amadou Onana made an immediate positive attacking impact after his 81st-minute introduction and should get a longer run out in his home debut.
Onana isn’t an out-and-out scorer, but he could fill the creativity void left by Richarlison’s summer departure to Tottenham Hotspur.
By The Numbers
- 0.0 — Goals scored per 90 minutes without Onana on the pitch.
- 9.0 — Goals scored per 90 minutes with Onana in the game.
Forest have added more than a dozen players this summer in preparation for its return to the English top flight. And so far, it has been enough to make the promotion-playoff winner interesting.
Forest took a 0-0 score into the second half of its opener, which finished as a 2-0 away loss to Newcastle. Then, the Reds held on for victory last weekend on the strength of Taiwo Awoniyi’s goal, Dean Henderson’s penalty save and some resolute — if not always calm — defending.
However, manager Steve Cooper’s side will have to do better at limiting the number of opposition chances in the longer term. Forest’s 4.1 xG against is the most of any EPL club in the first two weeks of the season, plus its 3.5 non-penalty xGA is the second most as well.
By The Numbers
- 4.1 — Forest’s xG allowed in two contests.
- 3.5 — The Reds’ non-penalty xG allowed in two games.
Betting Analysis & Pick
A lot is made of Calvert-Lewin’s absence, but Richarlison was far more important to Everton’s attack last season. And if Onana can replicate at least some of that chance creation, the Toffees have enough talent to find goals against lower-table opponents like Forest.
Further, Everton’s two matches have averaged 2.6 combined xG, with Forest’s averaging 2.9 in the same metric so far. The actual scoring in both cases has fallen below xG expectations.
So, that could make this a good time to play the total clearing 2.5 goals at even money, even if it’s only an educated guess that regression is coming.
At the very least, your fading a large betting public that can be overly reactive to the first couple weeks of the season. And that’s often a good move.
The Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
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