FC Dallas vs. Inter Miami Betting Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions: Value Sitting on Texas Side to Rout Herons

FC Dallas vs. Inter Miami Betting Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions: Value Sitting on Texas Side to Rout Herons article feature image

Shaun Clark/Getty Images. Pictured: FC Dallas standout Jesús Ferreira , left, and teammate Jáder Obrian celebrate a goal.

  • FC Dallas hosts Inter Miami in Monday’s Major League Soccer showdown.
  • The Texas outfit is heavily favored and analyst Ian Quillen thinks they’ll roll to the win.
  • Check out below where he has landed for his top betting selection.

FC Dallas vs. Inter Miami Odds

FC Dallas Odds-190
Inter Miami Odds+475
Over/Under2.5 (-140 / +100)
Day | TimeMonday | 9 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds updated as of Monday night  via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

FC Dallas will attempt to bounce back from a tough loss against the Supporters' Shield leader when it hosts Inter Miami on Monday in the Major League Soccer clash.

Dallas got a team-leading 10th goal from Jesus Ferreira on a gorgeous free kick just before halftime against Los Angeles FC, but wound up enduring a 3-1 setback last time out.

In contrast, Inter Miami hasn’t played since substitute Indiana Vassilev scored both late goals in a rousing, 2-1 comeback win over Minnesota United more than a week ago.

These clubs have met only once previously, when Dallas earned a 2-1 home victory late in Inter Miami's inaugural season.

FC Dallas

Dallas has exceeded expectations during the first half of manager Nico Estevez's first season in charge.

Ferreira is tied for the MLS Golden Boot lead entering Monday’s fixtures. Winger Paul Arriola has a career eight goals in his first year in Texas as well.

However, FC Dallas has lost its last two games at home to Minnesota United and Vancouver, which were teams that visited Toyota Stadium as heavy underdogs in those outings.

If it was a case of overlooking an opponent, the metrics don't suggest that scenario. Dallas has outcreated opponents in xG in seven of its eight home matches, including both losses.

By The Numbers

  • 67 — Percentage of FC Dallas goals scored by either Ferreira or Arriola.
  • 4-4 — Dallas' win-loss record against the -1.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at home this season.
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Inter Miami

The Herons have improved at home since manager Phil Neville took the bold step of benching Gonzalo Higuain. Yet, their away form hasn't come around enough to translate into results.

Don't get it wrong, though. Miami has been far more competitive since Neville's move. The Herons just can't score goals, failing to do so in their last four away matches.

They're probably due a bit of a break to that end — they've created 3.2 xG in that stretch. But even Neville this week conceded the lack of away scoring was a sign his team needed to add talent when the summer window opens.

By The Numbers

  • 409 — Number of minutes since Inter Miami's last away goal.
  • 0.9 — Campana's aggregate expected goals away from home this season. He has one of the Herons’ three goals scored on the road.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

What FC Dallas is best at in 2022 is putting games away. It's a valuable skill in MLS, where parity means teams get punished for not taking their chances.

Six of the host’s seven victories have come by multiple goals, including four of five on home soil.

Conversely, Inter Miami has kept road games lower scoring, but it hasn’t yet traveled to a side with Dallas' counterattacking prowess. That said, it leaves me a little wary of playing the under on the total, which was my initial lean.

Instead, I'm taking Dallas giving -1.5 goals on the spread line via the Asian Handicap as my top wager. The bet has hit in 50% of Dallas’ home games and more than half of Miami's travels. And at +140 odds, you're dealing with an implied 41.7% probability.

The Pick: Dallas -1.5 (+140)

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