Bundesliga Odds & Betting Picks for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Borussia Dortmund (Friday, Jan. 22)

M'Gladbach vs. Dortmund Odds

Odds updated as of Thursday at 12:45 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The last few weeks of Bundesliga matches taking place Friday have not disappointed, as Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Bayern Munich on Jan. 8 and Union Berlin upset Bayer Leverkusen in stoppage time exactly a week later.

Now, M'Gladbach hosts to Borussia Dortmund on Friday, as two of Germany's five best teams face off at Borussia Park.

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M'Gladbach

The host side has been up and down for most of the Bundesliga season. The Foals' form has improved in recent weeks, notably in that 3-2 upset victory over Bayern Munich. M'Gladbach advanced out of the Champions League group state for the first time in club history as well.

The Foals' underlying numbers rank fifth in the German top flight, but they’ve faced as much squad rotation due to injury and suspension as any team in the league. Breel Embolo has been M'Gladbach's breakout attacker, averaging 0.48 xG per 90 minutes. However, he missed Tuesday’s match against Werder Bremen and could return for Friday's affair. 

Marcus Thuram is not yet back from his six-game suspension on the left wing, and midfielder Denis Zakaria has barely played full 90-minute games since returning from injury. Because of this, M'Gladbach’s underlying xG numbers are worse by about two-tenths of a goal per 90 minutes compared to last season. 

However, there’s a reason to think the Foals’ defensive numbers are due for some positive regression. M'Gladbach is allowing the lowest percentage of shots on target of any Bundesliga team, but is also yielding the highest amount of goals per shot on target.

This is partly because goalkeeper Yann Sommer — typically one of the Bundesliga and world’s best on post-shot xG — is the worst in the league so far. These numbers tend to be noisy in the short term, and M'Gladbach will not keep underperforming their xGA numbers like this. Improvement from Sommer and the ridiculously good finishing rates by M'Gladbach’s opponents against them won’t continue. 

Dortmund

Dortmund was handed a deserved 2-1 defeat by Bayer Leverkusen last out, as BVB’s midfield struggled to press its foe efficiently and gave their runners too much time and space to get in behind the defense.

Even though Dortmund played a much better second half, they didn’t create nearly enough to deserve victory. 

Playing without Emre Can (suspension) and Axel Witsel (injury), Dortmund didn’t look nearly as effective through the midfield and was caught on the ball way too often. The club didn’t apply enough pressure to Bayer Leverkusen and it wasn’t until around the 60th minute that it created notable scoring chances.

Dortmund, like Gladbach, is underperforming its xG numbers and with some better luck could actually be in the title race with Bayern Munich. The problem is that its had too many flukey results, like against Mainz on Jan. 10 and bad performances like this week's earlier performance.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

When these sides met at Dortmund on the opening day, M'Gladbach didn’t have any of its top attackers. The Foals actually played well in the midfield, winning the ball and immediately looking to play runners in behind. The problem is that there were no runners.

M'Gladbach will have Embolo and Lars Stindl available, with Dortmund without Witsel and Thomas Delaney. Because of this, I expect Gladbach’s midfield to win the ball and quickly feed runners in behind in true Marco Rose style. 

That said, I project M'Gladbach Pick'em and +105 odds and will take the host outfit via the Draw No Bet wager at +120. I will also sprinkle some on the ripe moneyline price as well.

Picks: M'Gladbach — Draw No Bet (+120) | M'Gladbach ML (+220)