Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wolves vs. Leeds United (Friday, Feb. 19)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wolves vs. Leeds United (Friday, Feb. 19) article feature image
Credit:

Robin Jones/Getty Images. Pictured: Wolves star Pedro Neto.

  • Wolves enter Friday's Premier League fixture with Leeds in solid form.
  • Can the hosts keep it going in a battle of sides separated by just two points on the table?
  • Jeremy Pond previews this match and shares his betting pick below.

Wolves vs. Leeds Odds

Wolves Odds +150
Leeds Odds +195
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-114) 
Day | Time Friday | 3 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds updated as of Thursday at 10:15 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Clubs looking to finish in the top half of the Premier League will battle Friday when Wolves host Leeds United for a crucial showdown at Molineux Stadium.

You really could not ask for a better way to kick off the weekend card, with these clubs separated by just two points in the standings. Both have very realistic hopes of finishing inside the top 10 of England’s top flight, so a victory would go a long way in achieving that goal for either side.

Wolves have won two of their last three league tilts, which has them sitting in 12th place on 30 points. The outfit recorded a 2-1 win against Southampton on the road at St. Mary’s Stadium last time out.

In contrast, high-flying Leeds got knocked back to reality a tad via its 4-2 loss to Arsenal at Emirates Stadium in its most recent fixture. With nothing gained, the Peacocks are stuck on 32 points and sitting in 11th place.

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Wolves

Things have turned around for Nuno Espírito Santo and the lads after a brutal stretch of results. Wolves had gone winless in eight consecutive matches before picking up two wins and a draw in its last three affairs.

The victory against Southampton came after a huge win against Arsenal, which preceded a scoreless draw against powerful Leicester City. All told, Wolves bagged seven points in those three games and started creeping its way back up the standings.

Portuguese international Pedro Neto leads Wolves with five goals on the season. Neto found the back of the net in that win against the Saints, where his team finished with a 1.1-0.7 xG advantage.

Statistically, Wolves sits middle of the pack when it comes to the advanced numbers despite finding its form. The club sits on a 25.2 expected goals (xG) and 26.9 expected goals against, resulting in a relatively flat -1.7 xGDiff and -0.07 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Leeds

Win or lose, the Peacocks continue to be “must-see” TV every time they step foot on the pitch. They took part in another entertaining affair at the Emirates, but could not overcome three first-half Arsenal goals in the road setback.

Leeds has definitely been a breath of fresh air, boasting a “no holding back” approach after 16 years away from the big stage. Its attitude and style of play can also be directly correlated to its overall record, which features just two draws (tied for the league low with Sheffield United) in 23 fixtures.

Patrick Bamford continues to lead the line, racking up 12 goals so far. Bamford, who has a good shot at finishing in the top 3 in the Golden Boot race, has gotten some solid support from Jack Harrison as well.

When comparing numbers with Wolves, Leeds’ overall figures tell the tale of a team that loves throwing caution to the wind. The Peacocks sit on a solid 36.7 expected goals, but carry a ghastly 40.6 expected goals against that result in a -3.9 xGDiff and -0.17 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Leeds’ xGA ranks 19th overall, with only relegation-zone resident West Bromwich Albion (42.4 xGA) worse in the entire league.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

It always pains me to go against Leeds, due to my affinity for manager Marcelo Bielsa and the club. However, this is simply not a good spot for the Peacocks.

Wolves have been playing some solid football as of late, which really sets them up to find success against a Leeds side they shut out by a 1-0 scoreline when they met four months ago to the day at Elland Road.

That said, I am backing Wolves via a Draw No Bet wager at a fair price as my top play. The host has won the last four meetings against the Peacocks across all competitions, so I am optimistic they can make it five on the bounce.

I will also sprinkle a little on the total going over the alternative number of 2.25 goals. There have been at least three goals in Leeds’ last seven league fixtures on the road, so I like my chances with this wager.

Picks: Wolves — Draw No Bet (-129) | Total Over 2.25 Goals (-148)

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