Tim Groothuis, USA Today Sports
Germany vs. South Korea, 10 a.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
- Germany -501
- South Korea +1319
- Draw +597
Bet to Watch:
Under 3.25 goals* -120
Germany was about 15 seconds away from being in big, big trouble. That is until Toni Kroos rescued the titleholders with a mesmerizing free kick in the 95th minute, giving Die Mannschaft a 2-1 win over Sweden. That goal means that Germany will — in all likelihood — advance to the Round of 16 with a win over South Korea.
South Korea, on the other hand, are in dire straits. The Taeguk Warriors not only need to beat Germany, but they need to win by at least two goals and hope Sweden loses to Mexico.
Germany’s performance against Sweden certainly wasn’t without its flaws. The Germans were caught out by the Swedish counterattack a couple of times and were caught in possession a couple of times. They will also be without stalwart centerback Jerome Boateng after he was sent off midway through the second half against Sweden.
Still, this is as big a mismatch as the odds suggest. South Korea have amassed only 1.1 expected goals over the course of their two games to this point. It’s hard to imagine South Korea creating much against the Germans, who undoubtedly would be happy to win a snoozefest and reset for the Round of 16.
Since South Korea needs to score at least twice to win, you’d expect this game to have some goals in it, but I don’t see them accomplishing that feat. I am looking for Germany to get out in front by a goal or two before killing the game off with some keep-away.
*- This is an Asian Handicap, meaning half of your bet is placed on Under 3 and the other half is placed on Under 3.5.