La Liga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Granada vs. Valencia (Saturday, July 4)

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Photo credit: Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images. Pictured: Antoñin Cortes of Granada CF

Jul 04, 2020, 01:58 PM EDT
  • Valencia are slight favorites over Granada in their La Liga match on Saturday afternoon.
  • Is the betting market underrating a tough Granada team?
  • BJ Cunningham previews the match and makes a case for Granada to pull off the upset:

Granada vs. Valencia Odds, Picks

Granada odds +190 [BET NOW]
Valencia odds +155 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +220 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+123/-155)
[BET NOW]
Time Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
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Two teams battling for European football meet on Saturday afternoon as Granada hosts Valencia. These squads are currently tied on points and six off Getafe for the final Europa League spot in the table. A win for either side could get them within three points of European football next season.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Granada

Granada has been the definition of average since the restart, going 2-2-2 in their last six matches with a -0.04 expected goal differential.

Most of Granada’s success this season has come at home at the Nuevo Los Cármenes Stadium, banking nine of their 13 wins there. The main reason for their success has been their defense, which is allowing just 1.02 xG per match at home.

All that focus on defense has had an impact on Granada’s offensive numbers, as they’ve averaged only 1.14 expected goals for per match. That said, Granada has picked up their offensive play, averaging 1.75 xGF per match in their last five home matches. El Graná will look to build off their impressive 2-0 win at Osasuna on Wednesday.

Valencia

Los Murcelagos are a club in disarray, both on and off the field at the moment. On the field, they’ve earned only four points in six matches since the restart. Off the field, they’ve been riddled with injuries to some of their key players, and some sort of mutiny is brewing.

Valencia has been abysmal on the road this year, earning just 12 points in 16 matches. In terms of expected goals, Valencia has lost on average by 0.95 xG per game (0.93 xGF, 1.89 xGA), which ranks in the bottom five of La Liga.

As of late, they’ve been extremely poor on the road, picking up just one point in their last seven matches. They’ve been terrible on both ends of the pitch in those matches, losing the expected goals battle 13.79 to 2.63.

Analysis

Given all of Valencia’s problems, I don’t understand why they’re slightly favored in this match. Based on my model, I think Granada is severely undervalued in this match:

  • Granada projected odds: -116 (53.70% win probability)
  • Valencia projected odds: +380 (20.82% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +293 (25.47% win probability)
  • Granada projected xG: 1.56
  • Valencia projected xG: 0.94

Based on those numbers, I think there is a lot of value in backing the home side to get at least a draw from this match.

Pick: Granada Pick (+105)

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