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Wales vs. United States Soccer Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Thursday, Nov. 12)

Wales vs. United States Soccer Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Thursday, Nov. 12) article feature image

John Todd/isiphotos/Getty Images. Pictured: United States star Christian Pulisic will miss the game against Wales.

  • Wales will host the United States in an international friendly this afternoon, with neither side at full strength.
  • The hosts are the slight favorite, but at +145 a Wales victory is still deemed less than likely.
  • The over/under is set at 2.5. Jeremy Pond offers analysis of both sides, and his picks, below.

Wales vs. United States Odds

Wales Odds +148 [BET NOW]
U.S. Odds +195 [BET NOW]
Draw +220 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-175) [BET NOW]
Time 2:45 p.m. ET
TV FS1 | UniMás

Odds updated as of Thursday at 12 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Things could get interesting Thursday when Wales hosts the United States in an international friendly at Liberty Stadium.

The U.S. will be competing in its first match since February when it scratched out a 1-0 victory against CONCACAF rival Costa Rica.

On the other side, Wales earned a 1-0 win against Bulgaria in a Nations League contest on October 14 in Sofia, Bulgaria.

You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last time these sides met, so there isn’t a whole lot of recent history between these nations.

Let’s take a look at what might be in store:

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The host side has been in stellar form as of late, only losing one of its last 11 matches under former Manchester United star Ryan Giggs.

Wales has been solid in National League as well, winning three of its four matches in group play. The victories were identical 1-0 results, with Wales picking up late second-half goals to secure all three points in each win.

On paper, it would seem Wales would have the upper hand here. However, Giggs will not be in charge of this match and Tottenham Hotspur star Gareth Bale is not fully fit. Add in the fact Juventus standout Aaron Ramsey is sidelined with a kick and you have some major lineup questions in play.

When it comes to statistical data, there really is very little to go on other than the fact Wales doesn’t score an awful lot, nor do they concede many goals. However, the host’s lone recent loss was a 3-0 rout against England.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

United States

Much like its counterpart, the Americans have several lineup questions entering this friendly.

Chelsea playmaker Christian Pulisic was sent back to England after U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter and his staff deemed their star not 100 percent ready to go.

Forwards Jozy Altidore and Josh Sargent are also not with the team, which has to have you wondering where the offense is going to come from against this stingy Wales side.

Perhaps Juventus’ Weston McKennie or Borussia Dortmund’s Gio Reyna, who is making his debut with the senior U.S. team, can provide the necessary firepower in Wales’ defensive third of the pitch.

Much like Wales, there are no real advanced metrics to go on for the Americans. The U.S. does come into this  match in solid form, though, winning its last three games. The Americans defeated Canada (4-1), Cuba (4-0) and secured that previously mentioned win against Costa Rica.

Betting Analysis

This really is a difficult match to handicap, simply due to the fact these countries aren’t at full strength.

That said, I am going to back the total to stay under the number. Both sides are going to face offensive challenges, which has me believing we are going to see fewer than three goals in this game.

I will also sprinkle a little on the U.S. to scratch out a result.  The way I see it, the worst-case scenario is a draw for the Americans, so I will play them on the alternative line of +0.25 and back it with confidence.

Picks: U.S. +0.25 (-130) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-167)

[Bet the Wales-U.S. match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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