Italy vs. England Euro 2020 Odds, Picks, Predictions: English Have Value in the Final (July 11)

Italy vs. England Euro 2020 Odds, Picks, Predictions: English Have Value in the Final (July 11) article feature image

Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane and Phil Foden.

  • Italy and England face off on Sunday afternoon in London with the Euro 2020 title on the line.
  • England will be playing at home, although the Italians have taken down giants like Belgium and Spain to reach the final.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down whether 'it's coming home' below, delivering his best bet and analysis.

Italy vs. England Odds

Italy Odds+210
England Odds+165
Over/Under2 (+100 / -118)
Day | TimeSunday | 3 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN | fuboTV
Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

We've reached the Euro 2020 final with two of the most prestigious footballing nations going up against each other as England take on Italy at Wembley Stadium.

Soccer is closer and closer to coming home for England, who are playing in their first-ever Euro final and are going for their first major international trophy since the 1966 World Cup. This edition of the England national team is perhaps the most talented, complete team in Europe, and everything is set up perfectly for them, as they could win the title on home soil.

Italy's resurgence under Roberto Mancini has been incredible, as they are unbeaten in their last 33 matches. They cruised through Group A, but since the knockout stage, it hasn't been a smooth ride, as they needed extra time against Austria, survived against Belgium, and needed penalty kicks against Spain to get to the final. They've also had England's number over the years, as the last time they lost to the Three Lions was in 1977, so history is on their side.

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Italy Must Win Possession Battle

It's really hard to find a lot of negatives with this Italian side right now. They've only allowed three goals all tournament long and have only allowed 0.89 xG per match this tournament.

As far as the Italian attack is concerned, it's been very lethal in the final third. In their three group-stage matches, Italy averaged 2.03 xG per match, had the most shot-creating actions, passes that led to a shot and, goal-creating actions (per FBref). However, this is going to be the best defense they've faced so far this tournament.

Italy kind of showed that they aren’t that effective when they don’t have a large share of the possession because Spain was by far the better team in the semifinals, out-creating them 1.74 xG to 0.78 xG, which is actually the first time Italy have lost the expected goals battle in this tournament.

Additionally, Spain showed the way to beat Italy's two aging centerbacks of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci is through the middle, and England's attack is absolutely capable of penetrating them, just like Spain did, except England have attackers who are much more prolific in front of goal. 

England's Defense Has Been Top Notch

England’s defense has been unbelievable throughout this entire tournament. It took a Mikkel Damsgaard wonder-strike in the 30th minute to finally put one past Jordan Pickford. After the goal happened England took full control of the match, as Denmark for the final 90 minutes of the match had only two shots and created 0.11 xG, which is incredibly impressive. As for England’s offense, they have gotten progressively better as the tournament has gone on, creating 2.15 xG against Ukraine and 3.23 against Denmark 

England were able to control the possession against Denmark 55% to 45%, they completed 200 more passes, and they were really effective swinging balls into the box from the perimeter, as they had 30 crosses in the match. Spain showed against Italy that the way to beat their defense is through the middle because Chiellini and Bonucci are really good in the air and basically shut down any crosses that came into the box.

If England are able to hold a large share of the possession in this game, I think they will be able to break down Italy’s defense. Additionally, England don't play a high line like Spain did, so it's going to be much more difficult for Italy to create a lot high-quality chances. 

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Given how good England's defense has been this tournament, I think Italy are going have a ton of difficulty creating chances, as England have only allowed 0.59 xG per match. If the Three Lions are able to control a large share of the possession, I think they will be able to break down Italy's defense and finally bring football home.

I am going to back the Three Lions to lift the trophy at -120 (DraftKings) and would play it up to -130.

Pick: England to Lift the Trophy -120

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